“All-Solid-State Batteries Unlikely to Be Profitable for Now” [Weekend Money]

Falling LFP Battery Prices Compound Challenges
Yield Rates Remain Unstable

Analysis has shown that it will be difficult to expect profitability from all-solid-state batteries, known as the “dream battery,” for the time being.

Kyunghee Jung, a researcher at LS Securities, stated, “There are key hurdles delaying the commercialization of all-solid-state batteries, making it difficult to expect profitability from their production in the near future.” Jung first pointed out that the price of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries has dropped to an unprecedented low. As the price of conventional liquid electrolyte-based batteries has fallen to the $70–80 per kWh range, it has become much more difficult for all-solid-state batteries to secure price competitiveness at the initial stages of market entry. She added, “The market delay due to economic feasibility issues is the biggest challenge.”

There are also issues related to mass production. It is challenging to control the physical limitations of reduced ionic conductivity at the interface between solid electrolytes and the cathode/anode materials in mass production processes. Further, when trying to achieve the uniformity seen at the laboratory level in mass production, the defect rate becomes excessively high, which is another problem.

The market is therefore also adjusting the commercialization timeline for all-solid-state batteries. In a mobility analysis report from January this year, McKinsey projected that full all-solid-state batteries will begin to be mass produced at a commercially meaningful scale in the electric vehicle market only after 2030. Manufacturers have also not entered into full-scale mass production. Semi-solid-state batteries have entered mass production and are being installed in electric vehicles, but large-scale mass production of automotive all-solid-state batteries, which manufacturers had previously aimed to achieve between last year and this year, has mostly been postponed or remains at the pilot production stage.

The future growth rate of the all-solid-state battery market is expected to depend on the commercialization of batteries for electric vehicles. According to global market research firm Grand View Research, this year’s global all-solid-state battery market size is estimated at $2.3 billion (about 3 trillion won). Currently, sales are being driven by thin-film all-solid-state batteries applied to small electronic devices, wearable devices, and medical equipment, which account for 60% of total shipments. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from this year to 2033 is projected to be between 31.8% and 49.4%, but the market is expected to rise explosively starting from the point when large-format batteries begin full-scale supply for vehicles.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.