"Wait, Is Three Million-nix Even Possible?"... The Emergence of 'SK Hynix Scenario Chart'

Record-Setting Plunge Triggers Meme Frenzy Online

"3-Million-nix Scenarios" Spread Across Social Media

Market Eyes Rebound as Peak-Out Fears Intensify

SK hynix Headquarters in Icheon. Yonhap News Agency

SK hynix, once the undisputed leader of the global AI semiconductor rally, has now recorded its largest single-day drop ever, seeing its share price fall below the 2 million won mark in what has become an unprecedentedly volatile market. As market fears of a semiconductor “peak-out” theory intensify and macroeconomic headwinds mount, a tongue-in-cheek parody chart called the “SK hynix 3 Million Won Share Price Re-Entry Scenarios”—modeled after the scenarios for Korea's qualification to the World Cup—has been circulating online, capturing the bittersweet sentiments of retail investors.

All 9 Conditions Must Be Met for “Three Million-nix”… The Bittersweet ‘Hope Circuit’ of Retail Investors

On July 14, various social network services (SNS) saw the rapid spread of a chart titled "3 Million Re-Entry Scenarios by Combination for Earnings Season." This chart, parodying the bingo-style breakdown of qualification possibilities for Korea's advancement to the Round of 32 in the 2026 North and Central America World Cup, neatly lays out all the global semiconductor and big tech earnings milestones that must be satisfied for SK hynix to reclaim the 3 million won threshold.

Table of '3 Million Re-entry Scenarios by Combination for Earnings Season' Spreading on SNS. SNS Capture

A closer look at the parody's suggested earnings schedule reveals the intertwined chain of synergy across the global IT supply chain. Starting with Taiwan’s TSMC on July 16 (the note: “a strong impact needed”), followed by Samsung Electronics on July 23 (a need for performance and results that far exceed all expectations), then Google on July 27 (an increase in capital expenditures (CAPEX), improved earnings, and good cash flow required), leading up to an earnings surprise from both SK hynix itself and Seagate on July 29. It is also specified as an essential condition that all three big tech giants—Microsoft and Meta on July 30, and Amazon on July 31—announce increases in CAPEX. Notably, for Apple, which has recently unsettled the domestic industry with rumors of considering D-RAM from China’s CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies), there is a biting line: “No whining required.”

Investors are responding with bitterness, saying, “The mere fact that we’re talking about scenarios like this is proof the situation has become extremely dire.” Additional reactions include: “At the World Cup, we only needed to get three out of nine right and still couldn’t do it”; “I have trauma from bingo charts, so I don’t want to look”; “Number 8 looks impossible”; “Let me predict the outcome of this scenario for the poor retail investors: it won’t work”; “Even memes aren’t funny anymore”; and “Three Million-nix now feels like just a dream.”

A 38% Plunge From the Peak… The HBM Illusion and the Boomerang of Peak-Out Fears

The market reality, as revealed by actual indicators, is even more unforgiving than the parody. According to the Korea Exchange, SK hynix shares closed at 1,845,000 won on the previous trading day, plunging by 15.37% (down 335,000 won) from the day before and marking the largest single-day loss since its listing. Considering the stock hit an all-time intraday high of 2,987,000 won on June 25, nearly 38% has evaporated in less than a month.

On the 14th, the KOSPI was displayed in the dealing room at the Seoul Hana Bank headquarters. On that day, the KOSPI started the session down 37.87 points (0.56%) at 6,769.06. Photo by Yonhap News

Samsung Electronics, the other heavyweight on the KOSPI, also plummeted by 10.70%, sliding to the 250,000 won level, while a cascade of selling triggered circuit breakers and sidecars across the stock market. Institutional investors and foreign investors net sold 2.2338 trillion won and 1.6903 trillion won respectively, dragging the index lower, while individuals stepped in to net buy 3.8869 trillion won, absorbing the supply.

Behind this plunge lies a cold reality: the expectation in the securities market that SK hynix’s second-quarter earnings will fall short of consensus. Korea Investment & Securities revised its estimate for SK hynix’s Q2 operating profit downward by 8% from the consensus, suggesting 6.04 trillion won.

Paradoxically, the main reason for this downward revision was SK hynix’s biggest strength: high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Due to its exceptionally high dependence on HBM revenue compared to rivals, while generic DRAM prices have rebounded, the overall average selling price (ASP) growth rate has actually underperformed the market average. As a result, Korea Investment & Securities sharply lowered its operating profit estimates for this year and next year by 9% and 11% respectively. Other leading brokerages, such as Kiwoom Securities, have also downgraded their target price for Samsung Electronics, applying strong brakes across the entire semiconductor sector.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.