[2026 World Cup] Only Former Champions Remain...First 'Champion Semifinals' in 36 Years

France, Spain, England, and Argentina, all of which have previously won the World Cup, have advanced to the semifinals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North and Central America. This is the first time in 36 years that all four semifinalists are former World Cup champions since West Germany, Argentina, Italy, and England reached the semifinals at the 1990 Italy World Cup.

With these traditional powerhouses gathering in the semifinals, global football fans are expected to show intense interest in the upcoming semifinals and final.

According to Opta, a football statistics specialist, France is the most likely to win the tournament, with a probability of 34.05%. Spain follows with 23.45%, England with 21.94%, and Argentina with 20.55%. While France holds a slight edge, there is little difference among the three other teams. If Opta's forecast proves correct, the semifinal match between France and Spain, scheduled to take place at Dallas Stadium in the United States at 4 a.m. on July 15, effectively serves as the final.

Kylian Mbappe (left) and Ramin Yamal. Photo by AFP Yonhap News

France-Spain: 'The Real Final'... A Clash of Teams with Perfect Balance in Offense and Defense

The Athletic, the sports-focused media outlet of The New York Times, also characterized France vs. Spain as the real final. However, it gave Spain the highest likelihood of winning at 30%. France followed at 29% (1 percentage point lower), with England and Argentina at 22% and 19%, respectively.

France and Spain are regarded as the most balanced teams in both offense and defense in this tournament. France has recorded six consecutive victories en route to the quarterfinals, scoring 16 goals and conceding just 2. Spain, after opening with a 0-0 draw against Cape Verde in the group stage, has since achieved five straight wins. In their six games, Spain has scored 11 goals and conceded only one.

Among the semifinalists, Spain has both the fewest goals scored and conceded. Rather than explosive attacking, they have consistently built wins through controlling the game. Their average ball possession is 65.7% per match—the highest among the 48 participating nations in this tournament.

France boasts a formidable attack, ranking first in both total shots and shots on target. Kylian Mbappe (8 goals), aiming for his second consecutive World Cup Golden Boot, and Ousmane Dembele (5 goals), last year's Ballon d'Or winner, have shown overwhelming power.

France and Spain have met only once before in the World Cup finals. That was in the Round of 16 at the 2006 Germany World Cup. At that time, except for Thierry Henry, France’s key players—including Zinedine Zidane and Claude Makelele—were in their mid-thirties. Spain was transitioning, with Raul Gonzalez, Xavi Hernandez, Andres Iniesta, and Carles Puyol—who would later lead their nation to three consecutive major titles—emerging as their leaders. The match ended with experienced France coming from behind to achieve a 3-1 victory.

This time, the matchup is between younger generations. France's offensive leaders, Mbappe, Dembele, and Michael Olise, are all in their twenties. Spain's top scorer, Mikel Oyarzabal (4 goals), is also in his twenties, while Lamine Yamal is still in his teens.

The other semifinal features England and Argentina, who will play at Atlanta Stadium in the United States at 4 a.m. on July 16. Both teams have conceded six goals each up to the quarterfinals. In terms of goals scored, England has 13, and Argentina 17.

Argentina has scored one more goal than France but had to play two extra-time matches in the Round of 32 and quarterfinals. Excluding the 3 goals scored in extra time, their regular-time tally is 14—two less than France. England’s regular-time goals are 12.

Lionel Messi (left) and Jude Bellingham. Photo by AFPEPA Yonhap News

England vs. Argentina: 'Hand of God' Rivals Face Off for the Sixth Time in the World Cup

England and Argentina have played each other five times in World Cup history, with England leading with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. The infamous 'Hand of God' goal by Diego Maradona, widely considered one of the worst officiating mistakes in World Cup history, occurred during their quarterfinal clash at the 1986 Mexico World Cup. Argentina rode Maradona's controversial goal to defeat England 2-1 and ultimately claimed its second World Cup title, following its first in 1978.

No nation desires the title more than England, which has not won the World Cup in the six decades since hosting and winning the tournament in 1966.

The race for the Golden Boot is another highlight of the semifinals. Lionel Messi, who narrowly lost out to Mbappe for top scorer at the 2022 Qatar World Cup, is currently tied with Mbappe at 8 goals in this tournament. Erling Haaland’s run at third place ended with Norway’s quarterfinal exit after he scored 7 goals. England’s striking duo, Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, are both joint fourth with 6 goals apiece, eyeing a potential turnaround in the remaining matches.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.