War and Super El Niño Combine... Rice and Wheat Prices Expected to Soar Until 2028

Global Food Prices Could Rise by 15.8%
Super El Niño Triggered Food Crises in the 19th Century Too

In the wake of the Iran war, energy prices have surged, and the intensification of extreme climate phenomena has driven up the cost of crop production. There are forecasts that global food prices—including staples such as rice and coffee—could soar.

The UK daily newspaper The Guardian reported on the 12th (local time) that a combination of soaring energy prices and the occurrence of a super El Niño is expected to trigger a sharp rise in crop prices this year. Super El Niño is a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures near the equator are higher than average, causing changes in weather patterns. It is cited as a cause of abnormal heatwaves and floods occurring in various parts of the world.

Crops in European farmlands parched by heatwaves and droughts. Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News Agency

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced in a report published last month that El Niño has already begun this year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are more than 2 degrees Celsius above average, and the probability of it developing into a super El Niño has been estimated at 63%.

Super El Niño poses a risk of damaging key farmlands and hindering crop growth, which could shock food prices. Global investment bank Goldman Sachs also projected that super El Niño could cause worldwide food prices to surge by approximately 15.8%. Since the timing of planting, cultivation, and harvesting varies by crop, such price increases could persist through the second half of 2028.

India, the world's largest rice producer, is already being affected by El Niño. Although the monsoon (rainy season) has begun, rainfall in some regions has reached only 25% of the usual levels. If there is a shortage of water for agriculture, India will inevitably face disruptions in its supply of rice, wheat, and sugarcane to the global market.

Meanwhile, as the aftermath of the Iran war has made it harder to secure fossil fuels, the price of fertilizer used on farmland has also increased.

Food crises triggered by super El Niño have occurred in the past as well. The Guardian noted that from 1876 to 1878, deadly droughts caused by El Niño hit India, China, South Africa, Brazil, Egypt, and other regions. It is known that in India alone, then under British colonial rule, about 6 million people died of famine caused by drought.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.