For the First Time in History, Top Four FIFA Ranked Teams Reach World Cup Semifinals: A Look at Each Nation's Chances of Winning

Top Four FIFA-Ranked Nations Reach World Cup Semifinals

"Unbeaten France" Has 33.81% Chance of Winning

Only the world's top four football nations, ranked first through fourth by FIFA, have survived. With France, Spain, England, and Argentina advancing to the semifinals of the 2026 North and Central America World Cup, an unprecedented "battle of the stars" is set, and statistical analysis points to France as the strongest contender for the championship. This is the first time in history that the top four teams in the FIFA rankings have all reached the World Cup semifinals.

Which team among the surviving countries has the highest chance of winning? On the 12th, the statistics company Opta projected France to have the highest winning probability among the semifinalists at 33.81%. Spain followed with 24.16%, while England and the "defending champions" Argentina ranked third and fourth with 21.97% and 20.06%, respectively. Photo by AFP Yonhap News

Which team among the surviving nations has the highest chance of winning? On July 12, the statistics company Opta projected France's winning probability as the highest among the semifinalists at 33.81%. Spain followed with 24.16%, while England and the defending champion Argentina ranked third and fourth with 21.97% and 20.06%, respectively.

France, which won the 2018 Russia World Cup and finished as the runner-up in the 2022 Qatar World Cup, is once again regarded as a strong favorite in this tournament. The team is aiming for its third consecutive final appearance. In the group stage (Group I), France defeated Senegal 3-1, Iraq 3-0, and Norway 4-1, securing three straight victories to advance to the knockout rounds.

Their momentum continued in the knockout stage. France overwhelmed Sweden 3-0 in the Round of 32, then overcame Paraguay 1-0 in the Round of 16, despite Paraguay employing a rough and ultra-defensive strategy. In the quarterfinals, France defeated Morocco—who reached the semifinals in the 2022 Qatar World Cup—by 2-0. With Kylian Mbappe leading the attack supported by Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembele, France has displayed flawless offense and defense, passing through three knockout matches without conceding a single goal.

AFP Yonhap News

Spain awaits France on their path to the final. The two teams will face each other in the semifinals at Dallas Stadium in Texas, United States, at 4 a.m. on July 15. Opta predicts France has a 57.44% chance of victory, while Spain's probability is 42.56%. Spain boasts a solid defense, having conceded only one goal in six matches during this tournament. Spain earned their semifinal spot by defeating Belgium 2-1 in the quarterfinals. The match is expected to hinge on how effectively Spain—driven by Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams on the flanks and Pedri and Mikel Merino in midfield—can contain the attacking trio of Mbappe, Dembele, and Olise from France.

On the other side of the bracket, England and Argentina will go head-to-head. Opta forecasts England's probability of reaching the final at 51.27%, while Argentina's stands at 48.73%. With only a 2.54 percentage point difference between the two, this semifinal is expected to be the more closely contested of the two. England, led by the scoring abilities of Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, is aiming for their first World Cup victory in 60 years since their home tournament in 1966. All eyes are on whether these two players, who have each scored six goals in this tournament, can lead England back to the final.

Argentina is seeking its second consecutive title and fourth World Cup overall. In the quarterfinals, Argentina defeated Switzerland 3-1 after an extended match, and will once again challenge for the crown with "football legend" Lionel Messi at the heart of the team. The England vs. Argentina semifinal is scheduled for 4 a.m. on July 16 at Atlanta Stadium in Georgia, United States.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.