[New York Stock Exchange] 'May Strike Again'... Trump’s Remarks Drive Oil Prices Up, Market Ends Mixed

Drew the Line on Escalation, but Middle East Tensions Rise Again
Oil Prices Surge Across the Board
Semiconductor Sector Remains Stable Compared to Previous Session

U.S. President Donald Trump made remarks suggesting the possibility of renewed attacks on Iran, which led to an increase in international oil prices and heightened risk aversion in the markets. As a result, on July 8 (local time), the three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed. Additionally, investor sentiment was dampened by the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes released that day, which noted the possibility of additional tightening if inflation remains elevated.

On this day at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) fell by 576.76 points (1.06%) to close at 52,348.39. The S&P 500 index, which focuses on large-cap stocks, declined by 21.14 points (0.28%) to 7,482.71. The Nasdaq index, which is heavily weighted toward technology stocks, rose by 51.96 points (0.20%) to 25,870.65.

Uncertainty in the Middle East once again rattled the markets. President Trump, speaking to reporters at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Ankara, Türkiye, on the 8th, said, "We bombed them very hard last night," and added, "There is a possibility that we will strike hard again tonight."

When asked whether the U.S. could resume a maritime blockade against Iran, he replied, "We can do it again," and noted, "It would be a blockade aimed solely at Iran."

These comments came just hours after the U.S. had conducted large-scale airstrikes on targets inside Iran. The U.S. stated that Iran had recently attacked ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and that it had struck over 80 targets, including Iran's air defense network, command and control centers, and coastal radar facilities.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran claimed in response that it had attacked military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Both countries are key hubs in the Gulf region that host U.S. military bases.

President Trump also commented on the interim agreement with Iran, saying, "In my view, it is over." However, he added that he would not completely rule out talks. "If negotiators want to keep talking, I will let them," he said, "but I don't see it that way."

Nevertheless, President Trump drew a line regarding the possibility of a full-scale resumption of war with Iran. When asked whether he thought war with Iran would restart, he said, "I don't think so," but also remarked, "If there is an attack, it would proceed quickly." He further stated that while there was the possibility of additional attacks that night, "it will not be prolonged."

In response, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for August delivery rose 4.37% from the previous session to $73.52 per barrel. On the ICE Futures Exchange, Brent crude for September delivery increased 5.20% to $78.02 per barrel compared to the previous session.

ExxonMobil fell by 0.52%, while Chevron ended up 1.10% higher. Consumer-related stocks that could be affected by rising energy prices declined, with Home Depot down 2.61%, McDonald's down 1.40%, and Booking Holdings down 4.24%—notable among the losers.

Semiconductor stocks, which had been under pressure the previous day, showed relative stability. Nvidia finished up 3.69%, AMD 0.25%, Micron 1.18%, TSMC 1.02%, and Cisco Systems 1.77%.

Daniela Hathorn, chief market analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a Wednesday morning report, "The renewed tensions in the Middle East have shattered the gradually complacent market atmosphere, and investors are now reassessing geopolitical risks after weeks of expecting a smooth easing of tensions."

She added, "The recent attacks have reminded investors that although a ceasefire is holding, a sustained agreement between the U.S. and Iran is never guaranteed. The market had grown complacent, expecting the conflict to subside, but recent developments suggest that assumption may have been premature."

Meanwhile, at Chairman Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, it was indicated that the possibility of additional tightening would remain open if inflation stays at high levels. The minutes stated, "Many participants noted that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would likely be within or slightly below the current target range by year-end, while many others assessed that the appropriate level would be above the current target range."

U.S. Treasury yields rose. According to Investing.com, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed 4.7 basis points (1bp = 0.01 percentage point) to 4.578% compared to the previous session. The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 5.2 basis points to 4.214%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.