Amundi: "Selective Diversification of Risk Assets Needed"... Investment Strategy for the Second Half Outlined

Amundi, the leading asset management company in Europe, has presented its outlook for the global investment market for the second half of this year, suggesting that it is necessary to mitigate risks concentrated in specific assets and to adopt a strategy of diversified investment by selectively choosing promising assets.

On July 8, NH-Amundi Asset Management announced that its second-largest shareholder, Amundi, had released a report titled "2026 Second Half Global Investment Outlook," which contains these insights.

In the report, Amundi assessed that, during the second half of the year, as growth rates diverge among countries, the combination of inflation volatility and geopolitical and policy risks will increase market pressure.

According to its baseline scenario, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to ease somewhat, with Brent crude oil prices stabilizing at around 80 to 90 dollars per barrel by year-end. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the central banks of major emerging countries are likely to hold interest rates steady in their efforts to curb inflation, while the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ) are each expected to raise rates once within the year.

Amundi also presented a downside scenario. It noted that if Middle East negotiations break down or stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) plunge, economic and financial sectors could be shocked, causing inflation to rise again and increasing the risk of recession. In the optimistic scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz is definitively reopened, inflation would stabilize, consumption and investment sentiment would recover, and the cycle for AI investment would enter a virtuous phase.

Amundi especially analyzed that the current phase of AI investment has shifted from a competition to "develop" technology to a stage where it is "diffused" across industries. In this context, opportunities for AI investment are expanding beyond semiconductors into real sectors such as energy, infrastructure, equipment, software, and robotics.

By region, Amundi forecasted that the United States and Asia, where hardware infrastructure is already established, will benefit in the early stage of the cycle, while India and Europe, where actual adoption and diffusion are key, will see benefits in the later stages. Amundi advised that, since opportunities vary by value chain stage and region, investors should diversify broadly rather than concentrate on one area. Among these, Korea was highlighted as a leader in the memory semiconductor segment. Amundi evaluated that, thanks to strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), rising DRAM prices, and expansion of AI server installations, Korea is enjoying expanded memory profits and benefiting from the AI hardware cycle.

By asset class, Amundi cited European bonds, inflation-linked bonds, and high-grade corporate bonds as preferred assets, taking into account inflation and fiscal risks. In the equity markets, it had a positive outlook on Europe—where investment in defense, energy, and infrastructure is accelerating—and Japan, where conditions for long-term growth are improving. In emerging markets, Amundi forecast that Asian tech stocks and resource-exporting countries will benefit as global capital flows shift away from the United States to other regions. By country, Amundi maintained a neutral stance on China and a positive view on India.

As means to reduce risk, Amundi noted that traditional correlations between asset classes may become less reliable, and that the role of real assets—such as infrastructure and private credit—as well as gold and commodities, will become more important. The dollar is expected to remain weak against other currencies, especially those linked to commodities.

Monica Defend, Head of Amundi Investment Institute, said, "With the independence of central banks being tested and inflation volatility rising, we are in an environment where the risks from asset concentration are increasing. In these circumstances, it is crucial to construct a portfolio that can withstand any situation, which requires diversification across currencies and real assets such as gold, and disciplined selection of promising industries and themes."

Vincent Mortier, Group Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Amundi, added, "The key to AI investment is shifting from leading-edge technology development to actual diffusion, and ultimately, investment should seek broad opportunities across the entire AI value chain while diversifying technological, geopolitical, and physical risks."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.