'96% Favorability in the Democratic Party' Overwhelming Support... Who Is the Kingmaker Shaking Up the Next U.S. Presidential Election?

96% Approval Rating Within the Party... Obama's Overwhelming Influence
Potential Candidates Line Up... Even Competing to Imitate "Obama's Rhetoric"

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As divisions within the U.S. Democratic Party have deepened recently, former U.S. President Barack Obama is once again emerging at the center of the political stage. Even without holding any official position, he continues to wield the greatest influence within the party, exerting the strongest impact on the path to the 2028 presidential election.

Potential Candidates Gather... "Competing for Proximity to Obama"

According to U.S. political media outlet Axios on July 5 (local time), former President Obama is still regarded as the most popular and symbolic figure within the Democratic Party.

Over the past month, leading candidates considered potential presidential hopefuls have all been actively showcasing both personal and political ties with former President Obama, working hard to make an impression by demonstrating their close association.

Former U.S. President Barack Obama. Photo by AP Yonhap News

At an event related to the Obama Presidential Center held in Chicago in June, a large number of major potential candidates attended. California Governor Gavin Newsom, after the event, expressed that he was "deeply moved," sharing his emotional response. This demonstrates that Obama continues to serve as a significant political touchstone for contenders within the party.

96% Favorability Among Party Members... Surpassing Taylor Swift

Obama's presence is also reflected in the numbers. In a CNN poll, 96% of Democratic supporters expressed a favorable opinion of him, far exceeding the figure for former President Joe Biden (71%). Some surveys show that he even enjoys higher favorability than pop star Taylor Swift, maintaining his unrivaled influence.

Even figures who previously clashed with him are now actively leveraging his image in competitive regional elections. Among prominent politicians, there is even a trend of emulating Obama's signature "gradually rising, hopeful tone and rhetoric" in speech style and messaging strategy.

"Coach, Not Player"... Focusing on Advisory Role

Former President Obama is choosing to maintain a strategic distance rather than taking a front-line role. In a recent interview, he stated, "I am transitioning from being a player to a coach," indicating that he is placing greater emphasis on his advisory role rather than public political activity.

US Flag. Photo by AP Yonhap News

In reality, his influence extends beyond simply supporting election campaigns; it also reaches into shaping the party's core policy direction. Regarding the hot topic in Washington of artificial intelligence (AI) regulation, it is reported that Obama has been working behind the scenes to rationally coordinate party opinion, helping the Democrats avoid falling into reflexive populism that targets information technology (IT) industry billionaires indiscriminately.

Repeated "Kingmaker" Role... Will It Work Again?

It is an undeniable fact that since leaving office, former President Obama has played a decisive "swing voter" role in the Democratic presidential nomination process. However, his behind-the-scenes involvement has not always produced positive outcomes. During the 2016 primary, his early and overt support for establishment candidate Hillary Clinton led to significant challenges in uniting the party after the primaries, which is now seen as a misstep that helped hand the presidency to Donald Trump in the general election.

In contrast, in the 2020 presidential race, he played a key, behind-the-scenes role in quickly uniting divided candidates around then-candidate Joe Biden. In the 2024 election cycle, he quietly led the party mainstream in persuading former President Biden to step down from the candidacy and abandon his reelection campaign following a disastrous TV debate defeat. Having steered the party through multiple crises, Obama is now widely regarded as the most decisive variable that could determine the Democratic Party's fate in the 2028 presidential race, where factional conflicts remain unresolved.

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