"KOSPI’s Fate Hinges on Samsung’s Earnings: Will the ‘Surge’ Resume as Profit Eyes 99 Trillion Won?"

Memory 'Super Cycle': One Day Before Samsung Electronics' Q2 Earnings

KOSPI Set for Boost if Operating Profit Surpasses 85 Trillion Won

SK hynix ADR Listing on July 10 Fuels Supply-Demand Hopes

On the 6th, employees were monitoring the stock market and exchange rates in the dealing room at the Hana Bank headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul. On this day, the KOSPI opened at 8,186.82, up 98.48 points (1.22%) from the previous session, while the KOSDAQ index opened at 866.40, down 2.01 points (0.23%). July 6, 2026. Photo by Jo Yongjun

The KOSPI is on an upward trend, fueled by expectations surrounding several major events scheduled for this week, including the release of Samsung Electronics' second-quarter earnings and the listing of SK hynix's American Depositary Receipts (ADR). According to the consensus among securities firms, Samsung Electronics' estimated second-quarter operating profit is 85 trillion won. If the actual results exceed this figure, it is expected to be a positive factor for the Korean stock market.

As of 10:08 a.m. on July 6, the KOSPI was trading at 8,170.51, up 1.02% from the previous session. In contrast, the KOSDAQ was trading at 848.84, down 2.25% from the previous day. Retail investors have led the rise, with net purchases exceeding 610 billion won on the KOSPI. Foreign investors recorded net sales of around 140 billion won, marking a selling streak for 12 consecutive trading days, while institutions were also net sellers of approximately 540 billion won.

Memory Market "Super Boom": Expectations for Samsung Electronics' Second-Quarter Earnings Surprise

One day ahead of Samsung Electronics' provisional second-quarter earnings announcement scheduled for July 7, large-cap semiconductor stocks are driving the KOSPI upward. As of 9:50 a.m., Samsung Electronics was trading at 325,000 won, up 3.34% from the previous session, while SK hynix rose 1.98% to 2,473,000 won. SK Square was also up 4.15% at 1,655,000 won. Other gainers included Hyundai Motor (up 2.85%), Samsung Life Insurance (up 2.87%), and Samsung C&T (up 4.50%). In contrast, Samsung Electro-Mechanics (down 3.27%), LG Energy Solution (down 1.66%), and Samsung Biologics (down 1.97%) were among the decliners.

Securities analysts believe that if Samsung Electronics' provisional second-quarter results surpass expectations, the recent correction in the market could turn into a new upward momentum. On the other hand, if the results fall short, there are concerns about further declines in the Korean stock market.

According to financial information provider FnGuide, the consensus estimate for Samsung Electronics' second-quarter operating profit, as predicted by domestic securities firms over the past month, stands at 85.1 trillion won. Ji-Young Han, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, commented, "The market's realistic expectation for Samsung Electronics' second-quarter operating profit may be set at over 85 trillion won." She added, "If Samsung Electronics’ earnings surprise is not strong, it could trigger selling pressure due to the perception that the positive catalyst has been exhausted."

Meritz Securities gave the highest estimate, forecasting Samsung Electronics' second-quarter operating profit at 99.3 trillion won. Sunwoo Kim, a researcher at Meritz Securities, stated, "The semiconductor (DS) division is expected to drive the company's overall performance with an operating profit of 96.9 trillion won in the second quarter. The profitability-focused management strategy for memory semiconductors will be a key strength." However, he added, "A performance bonus provision amounting to 10-12% of the DS division’s operating profit could be additionally reflected in the results." When this is taken into account, the operating profit is expected to be around 90 trillion won.

BNK Investment & Securities presented the lowest estimate among domestic securities firms, projecting operating profit at 77.6 trillion won. Minhee Lee, a researcher at BNK Investment & Securities, explained, "We expect the DS division’s operating profit to be 75.3 trillion won, reflecting a provision for special performance bonuses of 14.9 trillion won." Among foreign securities firms, Citi lowered its second-quarter operating profit forecast for Samsung Electronics to 72.3 trillion won, also factoring in bonus provisions.

SK hynix ADR Listing on July 10: Growing Expectations

The upcoming ADR listing of SK hynix, scheduled for July 10, is also a major event that could influence the direction of the Korean stock market. According to Bloomberg on July 5 (local time), SK hynix's ADR issue is expected to reach an unprecedented scale of $29 billion (44.3 trillion won).

The key driver of this listing is the surging demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. While SK hynix has been recognized as a dominant player in the HBM market, its stock has only been listed on the Korean market, making direct investment difficult for U.S. investors. Barriers for U.S. investors have included the time difference in trading hours, currency conversion issues, and the low liquidity of over-the-counter ADRs.

With the U.S. listing, SK hynix shares will be tradeable during regular U.S. market hours, and there is a possibility of inclusion in major indices such as the Nasdaq 100. Inclusion in such indices can lead to automatic purchases by passive exchange-traded funds (ETFs). For example, the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, manages assets worth $482 billion.

Market participants are watching to see whether SK hynix can narrow its valuation discount with Micron through its U.S. listing. According to Bloomberg, SK hynix is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 6.2 times based on the next 12 months' expected results. In comparison, Micron is trading at around 7 times, even after a recent price correction, and as recently as June 22, its PER exceeded 11 times.

Di Zhou, portfolio manager at Sunberg Investment Management, commented, "This public offering targets investors who find it difficult to access the Korean stock market. SK hynix’s Nasdaq listing provides a direct and frictionless opportunity to invest in the AI memory cycle."

SK hynix plans to use the funds raised from its U.S. listing for investments in domestic production facilities. The company intends to invest heavily to build two new production plants and introduce advanced equipment in Korea to meet the rising demand for AI memory. Rival Samsung Electronics is also expanding its capital expenditures in a similar manner.

However, a key issue is the inherent volatility of the memory industry. Memory semiconductors are a classic cyclical industry: when demand surges, prices and profits rise quickly, but once supply increases and demand cools, prices drop sharply and inventory burdens escalate. Just three years ago, both Micron and SK hynix posted losses as memory prices declined due to slowing demand.

The U.S. listing is also expected to spark arbitrage trading. If a price gap emerges between the Nasdaq-listed ADR and the Seoul-listed shares, hedge funds may engage in trades to exploit the difference. Similar activities were seen during the U.S. listings of Alibaba and TSMC.

However, it remains unclear whether conversion between SK hynix ADRs and Korean-listed shares will be freely permitted. If conversion is unrestricted, price differences between the two markets are likely to be limited. However, if there are restrictions, the U.S. ADRs could maintain a sustained premium. In fact, TSMC’s ADRs have traded at an average premium of over 21% compared to local Taiwanese shares over the past year and currently hold a premium of about 13%.

On Wall Street, many believe SK hynix ADRs are likely to absorb significant AI-related investment demand. Forrest Kim, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Bokeh Capital Partners, commented, "There are still many investors who have not yet entered this sector. If SK hynix comes to market, there will be pent-up demand from those looking to participate in AI memory investment."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.