[2026 World Cup] "Mbappe Will Have the Last Laugh" at 29%

As the 2026 CONCACAF World Cup reaches its halfway point, France has emerged as the strongest title contender. The formidable attacking trio of Kylian Mbappe, who is aiming to become the first player ever to win the Golden Boot in two consecutive World Cups; last year's Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembele; and Michael Olise, the current leader in assists for this tournament, has demonstrated overwhelming firepower. The experienced leadership of Didier Deschamps, who has been guiding the French national team for 14 years since 2012, is maximizing the impact of these star players.

Sports statistics outlet Opta projected on July 2 that France has the highest probability of winning the tournament, at 29.2%. This is nearly double Argentina's probability of 15.3%. Opta named Spain (11.1%) as the third most likely team to win the title. 'The Athletic', a sports media outlet under The New York Times, also predicted France's winning probability as the highest at 29%. It estimated the chances for both Argentina and Spain at 15% each.

Mbappe won the Golden Boot at the 2022 Qatar World Cup, scoring eight goals, edging Lionel Messi (Argentina) by a single goal. Mbappe and Messi are once again competing for the top scorer title in this tournament, both leading with six goals each. Mbappe has also recorded two assists, making his total offensive points eight, which puts him ahead of Messi—who has no assists—in this category.

French player Kylian Mbappe (center) is celebrating with Dayot Upamecano (left) and Michael Olise after scoring a goal during the Round of 32 match against Sweden in the 2026 CONCACAF World Cup held at the New York New Jersey Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA, on the 30th of last month (local time). France is considered the strongest contender for the championship in various statistics for this tournament. If they reach the top, it will be their third World Cup victory and they will set several historic records. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

France Tops Title Odds, Nearly Double Argentina's 15% Probability

Ousmane Dembele, who plays alongside Lee Kang-in at Paris Saint-Germain, has also accumulated six offensive points, tying with Messi for second place. He has scored four goals and provided two assists so far.

Michael Olise, the winger for Bayern Munich, is playing the role of top "playmaker." With five assists in this tournament, he leads the category and is just one shy of Pele's record for most assists in a single World Cup (six), set at the 1970 Mexico World Cup. He has assisted on three of Mbappe's six goals.

The Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) is publishing player power rankings for this tournament. Using FIFA match data, players are comprehensively evaluated in three categories—attack, defense, and creativity—and scored out of 10 points. In these rankings, Mbappe is also in first place overall, ahead of Messi. He ranks first in attack, and second in creativity, trailing only Olise.

In addition to its formidable attacking trio, France has also enjoyed a favorable tournament draw. On July 5 at 6 a.m. (local time), France will play Paraguay in the round of 16 at Philadelphia Stadium in the United States. Paraguay endured a grueling penalty shootout against Germany in the round of 32, resulting in significant fatigue. If France advances to the quarterfinals, they will face the winner of the Canada-Morocco match. Morocco, too, had to go to penalties against the Netherlands in the round of 32 and faces physical exhaustion.

Mbappe-Dembele-Olise Trio... France Nears Third World Cup Title

If France claims the title in this tournament, it will mark their third World Cup championship. Head coach Deschamps will also set a new milestone in football history.

France won its first World Cup on home soil in 1998. At that time, Deschamps captained the team to victory, and as head coach, he led France to its second title at the 2018 Russia World Cup. He became the third individual in history, after Mario Zagallo (Brazil) and Franz Beckenbauer (Germany), to win the World Cup as both a player and a coach.

If France wins again this year, Deschamps will become only the second manager ever—after Vittorio Pozzo, who led Italy to back-to-back titles in 1934 and 1938—to win two World Cups as a coach.

Deschamps also led France to the final at the 2022 Qatar World Cup, where they narrowly missed out on the trophy, losing to Argentina after a dramatic penalty shootout. If France reaches the final again in this tournament, it will become only the third country in history—after Germany (1982–1990) and Brazil (1994–2002)—to appear in three consecutive World Cup finals.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.