KOSPI Expected to Start Higher on Continued Strength in US Tech Stocks [Good Morning Market]

New York Stocks Rise for Second Day
Semiconductor Momentum Continues While Oil Prices Fall
Expectations Grow for "Second-Quarter Earnings Rally"

The New York stock market closed higher for the second consecutive day, driven by continued strength in technology stocks such as artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors. The domestic stock market is also expected to start strong.

On the 30th, the KOSPI index is displayed on the status board of the dealing room at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

On the 30th (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,319.20, up 136.46 points (0.26%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 Index gained 58.93 points (0.79%) to close at 7,499.36, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 393.58 points (1.52%) to finish at 26,213.72.

Major big tech companies, including Nvidia (up 2.54%) and Apple (up 2.70%), led the gains, driving the indices higher. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, composed of 30 major semiconductor stocks, jumped 3.92%. SanDisk surged 10.84%, AMD rose 7.62%, and Intel climbed 5.95%. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions related to Iran and hawkish (favoring monetary tightening) comments on interest rates, month-end rebalancing demand and semiconductor momentum propelled the market.

International oil prices declined. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, September delivery West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.8% from the previous session to $69.50 per barrel. On the ICE Futures Exchange, August delivery Brent crude closed at $72.92 per barrel, down 0.3% from the previous session.

Some in the market remain concerned about ongoing negotiation noise between the U.S. and Iran and persistent energy inflation risks. However, the stock market has already absorbed these factors through several rounds of adjustment. Given that WTI remains below $70 per barrel and changes in expected inflation are minimal, some analysts suggest that geopolitical risks should be considered a lower priority in future strategy planning.

The KOSPI is expected to show strength today, buoyed by the end of quarterly and semi-annual rebalancing events, the strong performance of U.S. semiconductor stocks, and news of a rebound in KOSPI200 night futures. The June export figures and detailed semiconductor performance by item, which will be announced before the market opens, are expected to serve as the first major turning point determining stock price resilience by industry during the session.

According to Kiwoom Securities, foreign investors recorded a net sale of 48 trillion won in KOSPI stocks last month, marking the largest cumulative first-half sell-off on record. However, this is different from the broad capital outflows seen during past crises. Most of the sales were concentrated in the semiconductor sector for profit-taking purposes, and the foreign ownership ratio in the KOSPI actually increased compared to the beginning of the year. As pressure from oil prices and interest rates eases, further selling pressure is likely to gradually diminish.

Ji-Yong Han, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, stated, "The stock market this month may also face significant volatility pressure," but added, "It is important to note that the full-fledged second-quarter earnings season is approaching." He continued, "The operating profit consensus (average of securities firms’ forecasts) for major sectors, including semiconductors, is being continuously revised upward, so a level-up in the market, driven by earnings momentum, is expected. As external conditions improve, the extreme market concentration seen recently is also likely to gradually ease."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.