"Was This Planned?" Is Losing Actually Better? Overseas Fans Suspicious Over Korea's Projected Round of 32 Draw

Survival Odds Drop from 69.68% to 54.45%

Draw Depends on Results from the Remaining Six Groups

The South Korean team, led by head coach Hong Myung-bo, missed out on a direct ticket to the round of 32 after losing to South Africa in their final group stage match of the 2026 CONCACAF World Cup. However, as scenarios emerged suggesting that advancing as the third-placed team in the group could potentially result in a more favorable draw, suspicions of a ‘deliberate loss’ began circulating among overseas fans. Nevertheless, following the match on June 26, South Korea’s probability of advancing to the round of 32 dropped to 54.45%.

On the 4th (local time), at Monterrey Stadium in Mexico, head coach Hong Myung-bo is giving tactical instructions to his players during the Group A third match against South Africa in the 2026 CONCACAF World Cup. Photo by Yonhap News

On June 25, under the guidance of head coach Hong Myung-bo, South Korea lost 0-1 to South Africa in their final Group A match of the 2026 FIFA CONCACAF World Cup group stage. South Korea would have secured second place in the group and automatic qualification for the round of 32 with just a draw, but this defeat left them with one win, two losses, three points, and a goal difference of -1, pushing them down to third place in Group A. In contrast, South Africa secured second place in the group and confirmed their place in the knockout stage by defeating South Korea. Now, South Korea must finish among the top eight third-placed teams out of the twelve groups to reach the round of 32.

Lost, but the draw is favorable? Japanese fans say 'Was it intentional?'

The controversy did not stem from the match result itself, but from the projected knockout bracket. Japanese media outlet Soccer Digest reported that, should South Korea advance to the round of 32 as a third-placed team, they could receive a relatively easier draw. According to the provisional bracket presented by the BBC, South Korea could face Egypt, the first-place team in Group G, in the round of 32.

The South Korean national soccer team players who played the third group stage match of Group A in the 2026 North American-Central American World Cup against South Africa are undergoing recovery training at Chivas Valle Verde in Zapopan near Guadalajara, Mexico, on the 25th (local time). Photo by Yonhap News

Although Egypt is ranked higher than South Korea in the FIFA rankings, they are considered a less challenging opponent compared to Brazil, France, or Morocco—teams mentioned as potential opponents for Japan in the knockout stage. News of this possibility sparked discontent among Japanese fans, especially on social media. Comments included, “The difference in the level of the draw is huge,” “Japan might face Brazil, France, or Morocco, but South Korea is lucky,” and “Did they lose on purpose?”

A similar perspective emerged in Egypt. Egyptian football commentator Fathy Sand posted on his social media, “Do you think South Korea deliberately lost to South Africa in order to avoid facing Canada, one of the host countries, and instead meet Egypt, who will advance as group winners? Or was it just a coincidence?” Of course, there is no concrete evidence to prove an intentional loss. However, as South Korea missed out on automatic qualification with this defeat, the paradox that advancing as a third-placed team could result in a better draw has fueled suspicions among international fans.

Survival probability continues to drop, but the World Cup is more exciting?

However, this discussion is only relevant if South Korea actually advances to the round of 32. The problem is that South Korea’s qualification is not yet secured, and the probability continues to decline. As of June 26, six of the twelve groups had completed their group stage matches, and only one third-placed team—Scotland in Group C—was performing worse than South Korea. The remaining third-placed teams had better results in terms of points or goal difference than South Korea.

According to supercomputer simulations by football statistics provider OPTA, South Korea’s chances of advancing to the round of 32 continue to decrease as more results come in. Before the final match of Group F, the probability stood at 69.68%. However, after Sweden drew with Japan and secured a spot in the round of 32 with a better record than South Korea, the probability fell to 63.75%. Furthermore, after Australia and Paraguay drew 0-0 in the final match of Group D, a scenario that would have favored South Korea was ruled out, and the probability dropped to 54.45%.

From Korea's perspective, the results of the remaining six groups have become absolutely crucial. Favorable scenarios for Korea include Egypt beating Iran in Group G, Spain defeating Uruguay in Group H, or Senegal failing to achieve a significant victory against Iraq in Group I.

As a result, from South Korea’s perspective, the outcomes of the remaining six groups have become absolutely crucial. Favorable scenarios for South Korea include Egypt defeating Iran in Group G, Spain beating Uruguay in Group H, and Senegal failing to achieve a decisive victory against Iraq in Group I. Amidst these complicated scenarios, some soccer fans have found the World Cup even more entertaining. Comments include, “I never cared about matches in other groups or countries before, but now I’m watching while cheering for Japan and Australia,” “I’m more on edge watching other countries’ games than our own,” “It feels like I’m playing a bingo game, constantly checking the possible scenarios,” and “Even the commentators sound more energized because of all the different possibilities.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.