Korea Has 94% Chance of Reaching Round of 32 as Third-Place Team... Final Decision Could Come Tomorrow Afternoon

The Athletic Projects Korea’s High Probability of Advancing to Round of 32

In the 2026 FIFA CONCACAF World Cup, Korea finished third in Group A during the group stage, but current projections indicate that the country has an overwhelmingly high probability of advancing to the round of 32.

On the 11th (local time), during the Group A first match of the 2026 CONCACAF World Cup held at Zapopan Guadalajara Stadium in Mexico, the Korean and Czech teams faced off. After the match ended, the victorious Korean players took a commemorative photo. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

According to the “Third-Place Tracker” published on June 25 by the U.S. online sports media outlet The Athletic, Korea's probability of making the round of 32 currently stands at 94 percent, now that group stage matches for Groups A through C have concluded. However, this probability changes daily as the final matches for Groups D through L are yet to be played.

In this tournament, the group stage is contested by 12 groups of four teams each. Following the group stage, the top two teams from each group—a total of 24 countries—advance, along with the eight best third-placed teams, making 32 nations that continue to compete for the title in the knockout stage. The ranking of third-placed teams is determined in the following order: points earned, goal difference, goals scored, fair play points, and the latest FIFA ranking.

Bosnia, which finished third in Group B with 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss (4 points, -1 goal difference, 5 goals scored), has already secured its place in the round of 32. Korea recorded 1 win and 2 losses (3 points, -1 goal difference, 2 goals scored). Scotland, third in Group C, ended with 1 win and 2 losses (3 points, -3 goal difference, 1 goal scored), placing them behind Korea in seventh.

Coach Hong Myung-bo is seen with a gloomy expression during the Group A third match against South Africa at the Monterrey Stadium in Mexico on the 24th (local time). Photo by Yonhap News

The Athletic predicted that third-placed teams with at least 4 points have a probability of advancing to the round of 32 exceeding 99 percent, which is nearly certain. For countries with 3 points, such as Korea, the probability is estimated at 70 percent. However, if their goal difference is zero or higher, the chance of advancing to the knockout stage rises to 99 percent.

Among the teams that have not yet played their third group match but have the same number of points as Korea and a lower goal difference are Paraguay in Group D and Algeria in Group J (both with a goal difference of -2).

Korea’s fate regarding advancement to the round of 32 is expected to be determined as early as tomorrow (the 26th) in the afternoon. Depending on the outcomes of the final matches in Groups D, E, and F, Korea may maintain an advantage over the third-placed teams from those groups. However, if more matches end in close contests, a final decision may not be reached until all group stage matches conclude on the 28th.

Even if Korea advances to the round of 32, being a third-placed team means the path ahead will be challenging. On June 30, Korea will face the first-place team from Group E—Germany, which has already clinched first in that group—in Boston, United States, or will play against the first-place team from Group G (Belgium, Egypt, Iran, or New Zealand) on July 2 in Seattle, United States.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.