Can You Profit by Investing Before Anthropic and OpenAI Go Public? [Weekend Money]

Anthropic, OpenAI and Others Poised for IPO Debut
Supply and Demand Events Vary Before and After Listing
Step-by-Step Approach: Equity Holders, Peers, and ETFs

The influence of the artificial intelligence (AI) investment frenzy has spilled over into the initial public offering (IPO) market. With Anthropic and OpenAI preparing to go public following SpaceX, some analysts are noting that the U.S. stock market has entered a new cycle of mega-IPOs.

Recently, Jang Chiyoung, an analyst at Hana Securities, stated, "The combined size of the IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI is estimated at approximately 200 billion dollars, which would surpass the previous annual record set in 2021." He added, "As the key targets and response strategies differ depending on the timing, the SpaceX IPO case can serve as a meaningful benchmark for developing IPO response strategies for Anthropic and OpenAI."

On the 12th (local time), SpaceX employees cheered for the company's initial public offering (IPO) at the Nasdaq MarketSite balcony in New York, USA. Photo by Brendan McDermid, Reuters Yonhap News

"If you only wait for the listing date, you'll miss out"…Finding investment paths by timing

There are three main routes for investment. These include indirect investment via listed companies holding equity stakes, indirect investment through stocks in similar business areas or related theme exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and investment through value chain (supply chain) companies with direct sales linkages. Money moves before the listing date. Prior to an IPO, demand surges for shares in companies holding equity and for peer companies, while after the IPO, index inclusion and lock-up expiration events follow in sequence.

Among equity-holding companies, share prices react more sensitively for those whose equity stake value accounts for a higher percentage of market capitalization. Analyst Jang explained, "For SpaceX, which went public on the 12th, Mirae Asset Group invested through funds created by Mirae Asset Capital, with Mirae Asset Securities and Mirae Asset Venture Investment participating as limited partners. Although these were all group-level investments, the small-cap Mirae Asset Venture Investment, which has a relatively smaller market capitalization, saw its share price increase by as much as 568% to its peak, vastly outperforming the mid-cap Mirae Asset Securities, which rose by 298%."

The issue arose after the peak. Following a surge driven by expectations for the SpaceX IPO, Mirae Asset Venture Investment declined by up to 54.4% from its peak, and Mirae Asset Securities by 42.4%. This highlights the need to consider both the proportion of equity value to market capitalization and supply-demand shifts before and after an IPO, rather than simply whether a company holds equity.

This trend is also applicable to the IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI. Anthropic counts SK Telecom as the only domestic listed company holding an equity stake, with the value of that stake representing 17.3% of SK Telecom's market capitalization. OpenAI does not have any domestic companies holding a direct equity stake, but among Japanese listed companies, SoftBank Group's stake in OpenAI is equivalent to 44.0% of its market capitalization.

Anthropic and OpenAI logos Reuters Yonhap News Agency

Long-term outlook and investor risk considerations

If the risk of investing in individual stocks is too high, ETFs may be a viable alternative. For Anthropic, related products include KODEX Korea Sovereign AI, which holds SK Telecom; for OpenAI, ETFs that track Japan's Nikkei 225 and include SoftBank Group are mentioned. However, theme ETFs or investments in peer companies tend to show upward momentum during the IPO process but may face strong selling pressure as the listing date approaches.

In fact, prior to the SpaceX IPO, space infrastructure companies such as Rocket Lab and Intuitive Machines surged, but right before the listing, a combination of capital reallocation and unexpected negative events led to a downturn. Analyst Jang commented, "Space-themed ETFs allow investors to enjoy space-related momentum, but as they hold SpaceX at a high weighting, they can be highly volatile. On the other hand, ETFs tracking the Nasdaq 100 increase their allocation to SpaceX gradually, providing a relatively stable response mechanism."

Investment paths for AI are broader than for space. This is because related stocks are distributed across the entire value chain, including semiconductors, data centers, power infrastructure, cloud, and software. All three companies plan to allocate a significant portion of their fundraising to AI infrastructure, making it important to consider not only direct equity holdings but also AI infrastructure value chain ETFs.

Analyst Jang noted, "Just as the market has focused on big tech companies' capital expenditure forecasts each earnings season, after these IPOs, the companies' financial results will become a key indicator of the direction of the AI rally. The size of funds allocated to AI infrastructure and the financial results announced after listing will have an even greater impact on overall AI investment sentiment."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.