Negotiation Uncertainty Amid Hopes for Normalization of Hormuz... Oil Prices Hit Four-Month Low

Brent for August Settles at $77.08
WTI Closes at $73.21
U.S. and Iran in Standoff Over Nuclear Inspections

As uncertainty remains over the U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations, while hopes for the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz—a key oil shipping route—are also present, international oil prices have fallen to their lowest levels in about four months.

Ships waiting near the Strait of Hormuz on the 18th (local time). Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

On June 23 (local time) at the ICE Futures Exchange, August delivery Brent crude futures settled at $77.08 per barrel, down 1.05% from the previous session. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July delivery West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures closed at $73.21 per barrel, down 0.88% from the previous session. Brent crude has reached its lowest level since February 27, the day before the outbreak of war between the U.S. and Iran, while WTI is at its lowest since March 2.

The market is closely watching how quickly oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal. On this day, three very large crude carriers passed through the Strait of Hormuz, and some vessels are transiting the strait with their satellite tracking signals turned on.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO), under the United Nations, has launched a large-scale operation to evacuate hundreds of ships and 11,000 crew members stranded in the Gulf region through the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns about disruptions to the supply of Iranian crude oil have also eased as the U.S. government announced a 60-day suspension of sanctions against Iran.

However, some assess that the market is being overly optimistic as follow-up negotiations between the two countries continue. This is because the U.S. and Iran are engaged in a truth dispute over whether nuclear inspections will be resumed. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors will be deployed to Iranian nuclear facilities at an appropriate time.

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Siebert Financial, noted in a report that "(the market) is overly confident about a favorable outcome," pointing out that too little weight is being given to the risks of disputes over nuclear issues and inspections. He added, "The most likely scenario is not a breakthrough or a collapse in negotiations, but rather a prolonged period of managed uncertainty," and stated, "In this case, a certain risk premium will continue to be reflected in energy prices."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.