US Allows Iranian Oil Exports for 60 Days... Dispute Over Resumption of IAEA Inspections

Large-Scale Supply of Iranian Crude Oil Expected
Most Likely to Be Concentrated in China and India
Clear Differences Over Nuclear Inspections
Iran: "Vice President Vance's Claim Is False"

The United States has allowed the international sale of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products for 60 days. As the U.S. and Iran continue follow-up negotiations on implementing the previous Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to end the war, the U.S. has taken the initiative by easing oil sanctions first. However, with conflicting statements from the U.S. and Iran regarding the return of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to Iran, expectations are that future negotiations will be challenging.

According to Bloomberg on June 22 (local time), the U.S. Treasury Department has issued a 60-day license allowing Iran to sell crude oil and petroleum products on the international market until August 21. The license also permits transactions involving Iranian crude oil and petroleum products to be settled in U.S. dollars.

Bloomberg described this measure as a "broad shift" that comes as the U.S. and Iran are engaged in fragile negotiations to reach a permanent peace agreement. The report also noted that the U.S. has now opened the way for imports of Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products. If actual imports occur, this would be the first time in decades that the U.S. has imported Iranian crude oil and fuel.

This move is in stark contrast to the "maximum pressure" policy pursued by U.S. President Donald Trump during his first administration after withdrawing from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which aimed to pressure the Iranian economy. Bloomberg analyzed that this temporary suspension of sanctions effectively reverses the years-long policy of pressuring Iran.

Large-Scale Oil Supply Expected... Likely to Focus on China and India

In the oil market, there are growing expectations that a significant volume of Iranian crude oil could be released onto the global market. According to Bloomberg, Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded at around $77 per barrel on this day. The anticipation of increased Iranian supply has fueled short-term expectations of oversupply, pushing oil prices down to their lowest levels since the outbreak of the war.

Bloomberg reported that following last week's announcement of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, Iran is already rushing to export millions of barrels of crude oil to the market. The report also noted that the lifting of the U.S. maritime blockade has led to an increase in Iranian oil exports in recent days.

The resumption of Iranian oil supplies could help alleviate the supply shock in the oil market triggered by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for oil produced in Persian Gulf countries to reach the global market. After the outbreak of war between the U.S. and Iran, navigation through the strait was significantly disrupted, raising major concerns about large-scale supply shortages in the international oil market.

However, some analysts suggest that the actual impact may be limited. Bloomberg pointed out that the European Union's sanctions against Iran remain in place and that financial and logistical restrictions have not been resolved. As a result, there are expectations that the realistic destinations for Iranian crude oil will, for the time being, be largely concentrated in China and India.

Until now, the majority of Iranian crude oil has been shipped to China. According to Bloomberg, Chinese refineries have been importing discounted Iranian crude oil under sanctions, and India also purchased Iranian crude oil for the first time since 2019 during the conflict. Going forward, shipowners, traders, and buyers are expected to assess whether they can resume transactions in Iranian crude oil now that the risks of sanctions have diminished.

The latest measure by the U.S. Treasury also allows for the transport of Iranian crude oil via ships that were previously subject to sanctions. The U.S. had previously sanctioned numerous vessels for being involved in Iranian oil transactions. Since Iran owns a large fleet of oil tankers, it is considered to have substantial capacity to resume exports.

The Trump administration argues that this temporary suspension of sanctions will help stabilize energy prices for American citizens. Bloomberg reported that the surge in energy prices following the war has fueled global inflation and, with the November election approaching, has become a burden for Republican support, prompting President Trump to face pressure to bring the war to an end.

Differences Emerge Over Resumption of Nuclear Inspections

Regarding nuclear inspections, the two sides offered directly conflicting statements. U.S. Vice President JD Vance held a press conference after concluding follow-up negotiations at the Bürgenstock Resort near Lucerne, Switzerland, stating, "Iran has agreed to invite the IAEA inspection team back into the country." Bloomberg also reported that Vice President Vance described the first round of talks as "very, very good."

Vice President Vance emphasized that this step marks the beginning of a process to permanently denuclearize or end Iran's nuclear weapons program. He explained that the resumption of the IAEA inspection team's activities is scheduled within the week, possibly starting as early as today.

U.S. President Donald Trump's Truth Social

President Donald Trump also endorsed Vice President Vance's claim via Truth Social. He stated, "As everyone knows well, Iran will agree to undergo large-scale weapons inspections to ensure 'nuclear honesty' for many years to come." President Trump's unique phrase, "nuclear honesty," is interpreted as emphasizing transparency and verifiability in Iran's nuclear program.

However, the Iranian side denied the U.S. statements. According to Bloomberg, Iranian officials refuted Vice President Vance's claim as "false and not reflective of reality." Iran's state-run IRIB cited a foreign ministry spokesperson as saying that the nuclear issue was not discussed and that Tehran would continue to engage with the IAEA according to existing procedures.

Iranian media also did not confirm Vice President Vance's statements as factual. Nournews reported that Vice President Vance "claimed" Iran had agreed to the return of the IAEA inspection team. The original report also indicated that during the first 80 minutes of the talks, there were no negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, with discussions focused instead on implementing Article 13 of the MOU and the Lebanon issue.

Tasnim News Agency, citing a separate source, reported that Iran has no plans to negotiate with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi. The source stated that Director General Grossi's visit to Switzerland does not signify negotiations with Iran and that, while the U.S. wanted Grossi to participate in the talks, Iran objected.

There are also some differences in the two sides' explanations regarding the use of frozen assets. Vice President Vance stated that if Iran's frozen assets are released, the funds would be used to purchase U.S. soybeans, wheat, and corn. However, Bloomberg reported that there is still no indication from the Iranian side that it has actually agreed to such purchases. In addition, last week's signed MOU is reported to include a provision allowing Iran's central bank to designate the beneficiaries of the released funds.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.