Driven by Strong Exports and Stock Market Rally, Consumer Sentiment Rises for Second Consecutive Month

Bank of Korea Releases June 2026 Consumer Survey Results
Future Economic Outlook CSI Drops 1 Point on Rate Hike Concerns
Housing Price Outlook Rises for Third Consecutive Month

The Consumer Composite Sentiment Index (CCSI) for June rose for the second consecutive month. Despite the continued burden from rising prices and a strong won-dollar exchange rate, optimism grew thanks to robust exports and a rally in stock prices.

According to the "Consumer Survey Results for June 2026" released by the Bank of Korea on June 23, this month's CCSI was 106.6, up 0.5 points from the previous month. The CCSI is a psychological indicator that comprehensively reflects consumer sentiment regarding economic life, calculated using six key indices that form the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), including current living conditions, household income outlook, and consumption spending outlook. The index uses the long-term average (from January 2003 to December 2025) as the baseline value of 100. A score above 100 indicates optimism compared to the long-term average, while a score below 100 indicates pessimism.

Since May of last year, when expectations of a change in administration and the mutual tariff moratorium by the United States pushed the index above the baseline value (100), the CCSI remained above 100 through the beginning of this year. In January and February, the CCSI surpassed the 110 level, but when the Middle East crisis escalated in March, it fell below 110. In April, compounded by prolonged instability in the Middle East, disruptions to energy supplies, rising prices, and concerns over an economic slowdown, the index dropped to 99.2. However, since last month, expectations for an end to the Middle East conflict have grown, the stock market has surged, and export performance, particularly in semiconductors, has remained strong, resulting in the CCSI staying above the 106 mark for two consecutive months. Lee Heunghoo, head of the Economic Sentiment Survey Team at the Economic Statistics Department 1 of the Bank of Korea, commented, "Although high prices and a strong exchange rate have kept the index below pre-Middle East war levels, the two consecutive monthly increases indicate that economic sentiment remains optimistic relative to the long-term average."

While Current Economic Sentiment Improves, Future Outlook Stalls... Burden from Higher Interest Rates

This month's CCSI increase was mainly driven by improved assessments of current economic conditions. The Present Economic Assessment CSI, which compares conditions to six months prior, rose by 3 points from the previous month to 86, reflecting strong exports in semiconductors and higher stock prices. The Future Economic Outlook CSI, which compares expectations for six months from now, fell by 1 point to 94, as concerns about rising loan interest rates and high stock valuations had some negative impact on sentiment. Both Present Economic Assessment CSI and Future Economic Outlook CSI were 14 points and 6 points above their long-term averages, respectively. The Interest Rate Outlook CSI jumped by 12 points to 126, reflecting expectations of a policy rate hike and rising market interest rates. Lee explained, "The index rose due to expectations of a policy rate hike and recently elevated market rates. The scale of this rise was the largest since December 2016. The persistence of high prices and a strong exchange rate in the aftermath of the Middle East conflict, along with repeated indications of policy rate hikes, have influenced consumer expectations for economic policy."

Perceptions of household financial conditions were similar to last month. The Current Living Conditions CSI rose by 1 point to 94, while the Living Conditions Outlook CSI remained unchanged at 97. The Household Income Outlook CSI and Consumption Spending Outlook CSI were also unchanged from last month at 100 and 110, respectively. Indices reflecting perceptions of household savings and debt showed similar trends. The Current Household Savings CSI and Household Savings Outlook CSI both fell by 1 point from the previous month to 98 and 101, respectively, while the Current Household Debt CSI and Household Debt Outlook CSI remained unchanged at 99 and 97.

Housing Price Outlook Rises for Third Consecutive Month... Driven by Capital Region Apartment Price Increases and IT Sector Bonus Payments

The Housing Price Outlook CSI rose for the third consecutive month since March, reaching 120. Lee remarked, "Recently, the increase in apartment sale and rental prices in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province has accelerated. Macroeconomic factors such as rising stock prices driven by a boom in the semiconductor industry and substantial bonus payments in the IT sector have also influenced consumer expectations for housing prices." In fact, the Wage Level Outlook CSI for this month reached 116, the highest since July of last year (124), largely due to performance bonuses in the semiconductor and IT industries.

The expected inflation rate for the next year was 2.8%—unchanged from May—despite upward pressures such as rising consumer prices and a strong exchange rate, counterbalanced by expectations for an end to the Middle East conflict and anticipated monetary tightening. The expected inflation rate for three years from now was 2.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, while the five-year expectation remained at 2.6%.

This survey was conducted from June 9 to 16 among 2,500 urban households nationwide, of which 2,245 responded.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.