Lost $13.8 Million on a Prediction... World Cup Prediction Markets Surpass $7 Trillion in Bets

Prediction Markets Booming on the Back of the World Cup
From Match Outcomes to Top Scorer and Even Trump's Attendance

With the opening of the 2026 CONCACAF World Cup, so-called "prediction markets," where people place bets on match outcomes and other events, are experiencing rapid growth. As the stakes rise, there have been repeated cases of individuals winning or losing millions of dollars depending on whether their predictions are correct or not.

"Prediction Markets Continue Aggressive Growth"

On the 18th (local time), at the Zapopan Guadalajara Stadium in Mexico, the second match of Group A in the 2026 North American World Cup between South Korea and Mexico took place. Players from both teams are lined up at the center circle before the game. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

On June 19 (local time), Bloomberg News reported, after analyzing records from blockchain data analytics firm Dune Analytics, that this year’s World Cup-related betting amounts on Polymarket and Kalshi have surpassed 5 billion dollars (about 7.66 trillion won). The analysis suggests that the total of 104 matches in this World Cup has led to a significant increase in prediction market users.

Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, recently attended a Bloomberg event and announced that, thanks to the World Cup and NBA Finals, Kalshi’s daily trading volume surpassed 1 billion dollars for three consecutive days for the first time ever. Chris Grove, an analyst at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, also commented, "What we are seeing during the World Cup period demonstrates that prediction markets are continuing their aggressive growth trajectory."

Not only established prediction platforms, but also new companies are enjoying a boom. DraftKings, which entered the market last year, reported that the number of event trades last weekend hit an all-time high, even surpassing the trading volume seen during the Super Bowl this past February. The total number of customers increased by more than 200% and trading volume doubled compared to the previous weekend. The company has gained popularity because it can be used even in states where sports betting is banned, such as California and Texas.

"Few Investors Actually Profit from Successful Bets"

The photo is unrelated to specific expressions in the article. Pixabay.

However, despite the boom in this market, it is reported that there are not many investors who actually profit from successful bets. In fact, one Polymarket user lost about 9 million dollars (approximately 13.8 billion won) after betting on the prediction that Belgium would beat Egypt.

Jordan Bender, a gaming equity research analyst at Citizens, stated that individual investors in prediction markets tend to incur losses in the long term and have lower returns compared to those who use traditional sportsbook operators.

Meanwhile, there are various types of World Cup-related bets. In addition to predicting match results, people can also bet on issues such as who will be the top scorer, or whether U.S. President Donald Trump will attend the final match.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.