[2026 World Cup] Frustrated Korea... Japan Poised for a Major Breakthrough

Japan Continues Breaking Asian Football Records
Korea Faces Three Consecutive Losses in Recent A Matches

In the first round of the group stage at the 2026 North and Central America World Cup, both Korea and Japan received high praise for their impressive performances. However, their fortunes diverged in the second round. Korea suffered a 0-1 defeat against co-host Mexico, exposing a lackluster offense and defensive mistakes. In contrast, Japan completed a 4-0 rout of Tunisia, setting new records for both the most goals scored and the largest margin of victory by an Asian nation in a single World Cup finals match.

At the 2026 North and Central America World Cup, it appears that Japan is pulling ahead in the invisible rivalry for pride between Korea and Japan. Japan is breaking multiple Asian football records at this tournament, further cementing its presence. This signals a crack in the history of Asian football, which was previously led by Korea. In addition to holding the record for the most goals in a single match and the largest margin of victory, Japan is now on the verge of becoming the first Asian nation to reach the World Cup knockout stage three times in a row.

Korea still leads in the number of World Cup finals appearances. Korea holds records for 12 total appearances and 11 consecutive qualifications. Japan, having qualified for eight consecutive World Cups since the 1998 France tournament, is closely trailing Korea. In terms of knockout stage appearances, Japan has reached the round of 16 four times, one more than Korea.

During the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup, Korea made a historic run to the semifinals, while Japan exited in the round of 16. Since then, both countries followed similar paths for a time. At the 2010 South Africa World Cup, both reached the round of 16. However, at the 2006 Germany World Cup and the 2014 Brazil World Cup, both failed to advance beyond the group stage.

The trend shifted starting with the 2018 Russia World Cup. Although Korea defeated Germany 2-0, they were eliminated in the group stage, while Japan advanced to the round of 16. At the 2022 Qatar World Cup, both nations reached the round of 16, but Japan made a strong impression by defeating heavyweights Germany and Spain in succession and topping their group before advancing to the knockout stage.

Korea still holds the best World Cup result for an Asian nation, with a semifinal appearance. However, Japan is now considered to have the potential to challenge that record at this tournament.

According to the sports statistics firm Opta as of June 22, Japan's probability of reaching the semifinals was projected at 9.2%, while Korea's was 3.1%. For quarterfinal qualification, Japan's probability stood at 21.5%, compared to Korea's 11.9%. Japan demonstrated its competitiveness in the first group match by playing on equal terms with European powerhouse Netherlands.

Recent trends in head-to-head matches also favor Japan. Korea suffered a 0-1 defeat to Japan in the final match of the 2025 East Asian Football Federation (EAFF) E-1 Championship last July, and is currently on a three-game losing streak against Japan in A matches. This marks the first time in Korean football history that Korea has lost three consecutive matches to Japan. While Korea leads the all-time record with 42 wins, 23 draws, and 17 losses, in the last 10 meetings, Korea has only 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, indicating a downward trend.

Son Heungmin (left) and Ayase Ueda. Photo by Yonhap News

Many analysts attribute Japan's footballing strength to the steady overseas experience of its players and the stability in the management of its national team. Among the 26 players on Japan's current World Cup roster, 23 play for foreign clubs. Korea has 15 such players. In addition, Japan has enjoyed organizational stability under Head Coach Hajime Moriyasu, who has led the national team for eight years, whereas Korea has recently experienced turmoil over the appointment of its head coach.

Currently, both Korea and Japan are positioned second in their respective groups. Korea ranks second in Group A with one win and one loss (3 points), while Japan stands second in Group F with one win and one draw (4 points). Both teams will secure a place in the round of 32 with just a draw in their final group stage matches. Korea will face the Republic of Africa at 10:00 a.m. on June 25, while Japan will take on Sweden at 8:00 a.m. on June 26.

For Korea, finding a solution in attack is an urgent priority. If the stagnant offensive play displayed against Mexico is repeated, it will be difficult to expect further progress after advancing to the knockout stage. In particular, Son Heungmin—who is seeking to break the record for most World Cup goals by a Korean player—has been silent for a prolonged period. Unlike his impressive performance in the first match, Son did not register a single shot against Mexico.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.