[2026 World Cup] Opta: South Korea Has 91.2% Chance of Reaching Round of 32 Despite Loss to Mexico

Hong Myung-bo’s Team Faces South Africa in Final Group Match on June 25

Draw Secures Last-32 Spot; Even with a Loss, Third Place Still Possible

On June 21 (Korean time), sports statistics company Opta predicted that South Korea still has a high probability—91.22%—of advancing to the Round of 32 in the 2026 North and Central America World Cup, despite its loss to Mexico.

South Korea can secure second place in Group A and advance to the knockout stage simply by drawing in their final third group match. This outlook reflects the fact that their last opponent is South Africa, which has the lowest FIFA ranking among the four teams in Group A. Opta, in its tournament bracket prediction, assessed that South Korea has a high likelihood of advancing to the Round of 32 as the group’s second-place team.

South Korea achieved a come-from-behind 2-1 victory over the Czech Republic in their first match, but in the second match, despite a balanced game, they suffered a disappointing 0-1 defeat to Mexico due to a defensive error five minutes into the second half.

With all four teams in Group A having completed their second matches, co-host Mexico has secured two wins (6 points) and became the first of the 48 participating nations to book their spot in the Round of 32. South Korea sits in second place with one win and one loss (3 points). Both the Czech Republic and South Africa have one draw and one loss (1 point each), but the Czech Republic currently holds third place due to a superior goal difference.

The South Korean national football team players, who played the second group match of Group A in the 2026 CONCACAF World Cup against Mexico, are training on the 19th (local time) at Chivas Valle Verde in Zapopan near Guadalajara, Mexico. Photo by Yonhap News

Even if the Czech Republic defeats Mexico in the third match, their point total would only reach four. If South Korea draws with South Africa in their third match, both teams will have four points, but South Korea would advance as second in the group due to the head-to-head rule.

In this tournament, if two or more teams in a group finish with the same number of points, the so-called head-to-head rule is applied first, considering the records among the tied teams in the following order: points, goal difference, and goals scored. Next, overall group stage goal difference, goals scored, fair play score, and FIFA ranking are applied in that order to determine the standings.

Even if South Korea loses to South Africa in the third match, they could still aim for a spot in the Round of 32 as third in the group depending on the result of the Mexico versus Czech Republic game.

If South Korea loses to South Africa and the Czech Republic beats Mexico, South Korea would finish fourth in the group and fail to advance to the Round of 32. However, if the Czech Republic loses to or draws with Mexico, South Korea could still aim for the Round of 32 as third in the group behind Mexico. In this tournament, the top eight third-place teams among the twelve groups will also advance to the Round of 32.

If South Korea advances to the Round of 32 as the second-place team in the group, they will play the very first of the 16 Round of 32 matches, facing the second-place team from Group B at LA Stadium in the United States on June 28 (local time), battling for a spot in the Round of 16.

Currently, in Group B, co-host Canada and Switzerland are in first and second place, both with one win and one draw, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar are in third and fourth, each with one draw and one loss.

Opta predicts that if South Korea advances as second in Group A, they will most likely face Switzerland in the Round of 32. Furthermore, in a potential South Korea vs. Switzerland matchup, Opta gives the edge to Switzerland, estimating South Korea’s probability of reaching the Round of 16 at just 35.25%.

South Korea and Switzerland have met once before on the World Cup stage, at the 2006 Germany World Cup. Back then, South Korea defeated Togo 2-1 in the first match, drew 1-1 with France in the second, but lost 0-2 to Switzerland in the third, finishing with one win, one draw, one loss, and missing out on the Round of 16 after placing third in the group.

Overall, South Korea and Switzerland are even in their A-match head-to-head record, with one win and one loss each. In their most recent meeting, a friendly match in Seoul in November 2013, South Korea won 2-1. Currently, South Korea is ranked 24th in the FIFA rankings, while Switzerland is 19th.

The team led by coach Hong Myung-bo held a recovery training session on June 20, the day after the match against Mexico, and took a full rest on June 21. On June 22, they will travel by charter flight to Monterrey, the “land of decisive battle,” to prepare for the match against South Africa. The match between South Korea and South Africa will kick off at 10 a.m. on June 25 at Monterrey Stadium.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.