KOSPI Tops 9,000 as Market Eyes Micron for Stable Gains [Market ING]

Weekly KOSPI Forecast Range: 8,200–9,500 Points

Last week, the KOSPI surpassed the 9,000-point mark, just about a month after breaking through 8,000. As the semiconductor sector once again pushed the KOSPI to new heights, the market is expected to look to Micron’s earnings, scheduled for this week, to determine whether the strength in both semiconductors and the KOSPI will continue.

Yonhap News Agency

Last week, the KOSPI rose by 11.43% while the KOSDAQ fell by 6.07%. From the 11th, the KOSPI climbed for six consecutive trading days, finally breaking through the 9,000 threshold. On the 19th, it even reached the 9,300 level during the session, but later reversed course and closed slightly lower. Kim Jongmin, a researcher at Samsung Securities, commented, “The turbulent period of volatility has concluded, and a major bull market is unfolding. The KOSPI exceeded the 9,300 level during trading, rewriting the history of the Korean stock market. This is the result of overcoming, in succession, the supply and demand disruptions in the derivatives market, concerns about global liquidity absorption due to the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO), and the debut of the new Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, thereby resolving a series of short-term negative factors that had been weighing on the market.”

Jaewon Lee, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, also said, “This rebound was a normalization after excessive fear. Following the signing of the US-Iran ceasefire memorandum of understanding (MOU), oil prices quickly stabilized and US Treasury yields declined. Although the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) adjusted its dot plot and economic outlook to be more hawkish (favoring tighter monetary policy) than in March, the market interpreted this as a reduction in uncertainty rather than an additional tightening risk. As the market had already factored in concerns over war, oil prices, interest rates, and artificial intelligence (AI) investment, the intensity of negative factors eased. With the SpaceX listing event wrapped up, short covering and foreign buying flowed into large-cap KOSPI stocks,” he analyzed.

While some volatility may emerge in the near term, there are projections that the bullish trend will continue. Researcher Kim noted, “While price volatility (noise) may occur for the time being, there is a lack of significant negative factors capable of disrupting the core fundamentals (the main body) driving this upward trend. The focus of the stock market will now return to a robust earnings-driven rally, where the resilience of ‘AI growth potential’—the main body—will be verified through the numbers.”

Micron’s upcoming earnings announcement, scheduled for this week, is expected to serve as a gateway to this earnings-driven rally. Micron will announce its fiscal third-quarter results on June 24 (local time). Lee Kyungmin, a researcher at Daishin Securities, stated, “While the supply-demand imbalance in semiconductors is expected to persist over the long term, upward adjustments to earnings forecasts for the memory semiconductor sector continue. The consensus for Micron’s third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is $19.92, which is projected to surge by 63.3% compared to the previous quarter ($12.2) and by 942.9% year-on-year ($1.91). If Micron’s earnings guidance meets or exceeds expectations, investor sentiment regarding a prolonged boom in memory semiconductors will intensify.” He added, “This will strengthen the earnings momentum of the domestic semiconductor industry, expanding the upside potential and momentum for the KOSPI. Any fluctuations caused by a gap between expectations and reality will present opportunities to increase exposure.”

Nah Jeonghwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, stated, “Starting with Micron’s earnings announcement on the 24th, the second-quarter earnings momentum will begin to be reflected in the market. Recently, foreign investment banks (IBs) have been raising their second-quarter forecasts in response to continued price increases stemming from persistent memory bottlenecks. Samsung Electronics, which will announce preliminary results in early July, has seen its second-quarter operating profit consensus revised up from KRW 84.5 trillion to KRW 87.8 trillion over the past month, with the third quarter also revised up to KRW 105.9 trillion. If Micron’s results confirm favorable industry conditions, the earnings visibility of large-cap semiconductor stocks could be highlighted, leading to continued concentrated inflows. NH Investment & Securities has set this week’s projected KOSPI band at 8,200–9,500 points.”

With the official start of the second-quarter pre-earnings season, the upward trend in the KOSPI is expected to strengthen. Researcher Lee Kyungmin said, “While short-term fluctuations should be considered depending on this week’s US May personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index results and Micron’s earnings and guidance, the beginning of pre-earnings season will sustain and strengthen the KOSPI’s upward momentum. As the official second-quarter pre-earnings season begins, the key drivers of the KOSPI’s rise—policy and earnings momentum—are intensifying. Upward revisions to earnings forecasts are expected to become more visible, especially for Samsung Electronics, which will make its earnings guidance public in the first week of July.”

Key events this week include South Korea’s export results for June 1–20 on the 22nd; on the 23rd, the US June S&P Global manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) and the June Richmond Federal Reserve Bank manufacturing index; Micron’s earnings on the 24th; and on the 25th, the US May PCE price index and the US May durable goods orders.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.