U.S. Begins Follow-up Talks with Iran... Issues Public Warning to Israel

End of Counter-Blockade in the Strait of Hormuz
Unclear Timing for Start of Follow-up Negotiations
Warning over Possible Israeli Military Action
Vance Faces ‘Gentlemen’s Agreement’ Controversy

With attention focused on whether the United States and Iran will launch follow-up negotiations to end the war, it is expected that there will be no official signing ceremony for the memorandum of understanding (MOU) on ending the war on June 19. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance stated that negotiations should be considered as already underway, but some observers predict that the start of talks may be delayed. Meanwhile, the White House has demanded Iran’s full implementation of promises and issued a stern warning to Israel, which could potentially derail the MOU by attacking Lebanon.

Follow-up End-of-War Talks Begin Earlier Than Expected

Vice President Vance announced during a White House briefing on June 18 (local time) that “the 60-day negotiation period stipulated in the MOU with Iran has officially begun today.” Initially, Vice President Vance was scheduled to meet with Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, in Switzerland on June 19 to hold the signing ceremony and commence talks. If negotiations are considered to have started from this day as Vance stated, the deadline will be August 16. During this period, the U.S. and Iran will discuss the disposal of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, the scope of economic sanctions relief, and operational plans for the Strait of Hormuz.

However, Vice President Vance explained, “Our plan is to go to Switzerland, but I do not know the exact timing.” Meanwhile, the New York Times, citing Iranian media, reported that the signing ceremony on June 19 will not be held. The White House announced that Vice President Vance canceled his planned trip to Switzerland tonight for the MOU signing with Iran. It also predicted that the follow-up negotiation schedule with Iran would be delayed.

U.S.-Iran Maritime Counter-Blockade Ends... Will Energy Supply Concerns Subside?

With the start of negotiations still uncertain, the United States has already ended its maritime counter-blockade against Iran. U.S. Central Command announced that it had lifted its blockade on vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas. However, it explained that U.S. Navy ships would remain in the nearby waters to verify compliance with the agreement. Vice President Vance stated that, on the night before, 12.5 million barrels of crude oil had passed through the Strait of Hormuz. He said that by lifting the blockade, “transit was allowed for more than 12 ships.”

Iran has begun accepting applications for passage through the strait. According to the Associated Press, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), an Iranian government agency, is accepting applications through its website. Article 5 of the end-of-war MOU stipulates that, upon signing, Iran will take measures to ensure that ships can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz without transit fees for 60 days. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) issued a statement the previous day, saying, “Merchant ships wishing to transit the strait must submit a transit request in advance via the PGSA,” and added, “To uphold the intent of the MOU and swiftly achieve its goals, we will process received transit requests as a top priority.” There are a total of 24 Korean ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. The shipping companies operating these vessels are expected to apply individually for passage.

White House Cracks Down on Israel

JD Vance, U.S. Vice President. Photo by AP Yonhap News.

The United States is making every effort to advance the follow-up negotiations. Vice President Vance targeted Israeli government officials critical of the MOU, saying, “Donald J. Trump is currently the only head of state worldwide who is friendly to Israel.” He warned, “Israel’s problem is not President Trump, and officials in Israel who think the U.S. president is their biggest problem need to face the reality their country is facing.”

The agreement includes a provision to end military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Israel will maintain troops in southern Lebanon as long as it is necessary for Israel’s security. Therefore, it is assessed that Vice President Vance preemptively blocked the possibility of Israel jeopardizing the MOU by bombing Beirut under the pretext of attacking the pro-Iranian militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The White House has also clamped down on strong criticism within the United States. There are growing concerns, particularly among hardliners in the Republican Party, that the MOU is handing over the military gains of the war to negotiations. Roger Wicker, the ranking Republican member of the Senate Armed Services Committee (Mississippi), criticized that the $300 billion reconstruction fund envisioned by President Trump is so large that what Iran received through the nuclear deal (JCPOA) signed with former President Barack Obama seems insignificant by comparison. Ted Cruz, a Republican senator from Texas and an Iran hardliner, said, “If we give Iran billions of dollars, that money will be used to kill Americans.”

Responding to such criticism, President Trump said in an interview with U.S. online media Axios released on this day, “The only way I could go harder is to go in for two or three weeks and bomb them like crazy,” and added, “What do we get from that? The Strait of Hormuz would not be open.” He continued, “We would not receive oil for months. As long as bombs are being dropped, the strait would automatically be closed,” and argued, “Such a development could lead to a global economic depression.”

'Gentlemen’s Agreement' Controversy... Expected Difficulties in Follow-up Negotiations

There is also controversy over the existence of a “gentlemen’s agreement” not included in the MOU. Vice President Vance acknowledged that some agreements concerning Iran’s uranium stockpile and nuclear ambitions may not have been put in writing. He stated, “Some are documented, but fundamentally, whether written or verbal, we do not trust words. We trust actions and implementation.” He further explained, “Words do not matter. The key is to verify whether Iran keeps its promise to halt uranium enrichment and allows inspectors to dispose of highly enriched uranium stockpiles.”

However, the U.S. administration has drawn a clear line, stating there is no separate secret agreement. According to the Associated Press, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, explained during a closed-door congressional briefing that there is no separate agreement to the MOU. Nevertheless, Iran stated that a separate letter had been prepared for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) requesting inspections of nuclear facilities and confirmation of the location of enriched materials.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.