US Begins Follow-up Talks with Iran... Issues Public Warning to Israel

End of Counter-Blockade in the Strait of Hormuz

MOU Requires Cessation of Attacks on All Fronts

Israel Maintains Troops in Southern Lebanon

Iran Responds to Talks with a Hardline Stance

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump issued a direct warning to Israel on the very day the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was announced. The public pressure is seen as a response to concerns that the possibility of Israeli military action during follow-up negotiations could become a variable that disrupts the MOU agreement.

According to reports from the New York Times (NYT) and Bloomberg on June 18 (local time), U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance delivered an unusually blunt warning to the Israeli cabinet during a White House briefing.

He said, "If I were in Israel’s government cabinet, I would not attack the only strong ally left in the world." He continued, "Israel’s problem is not Donald Trump," adding, "If they think the U.S. President is their biggest problem, they need to face reality."

President Trump also posted on Truth Social the same day, stating, "The United States is committed to peace and urges all parties in the Middle East to keep their promises so negotiations can proceed smoothly."

He emphasized, "Oil prices have fallen significantly and stock prices have risen sharply," and added, "I expect a complete ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel."

Meanwhile, the United States has ended its reverse blockade in Iranian waters. U.S. Central Command announced, "The U.S. military is not interfering with the passage of ships to and from Iranian ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman," adding, "All U.S. military blockade enforcement measures have been suspended." However, the U.S. Navy will continue to maintain its presence in nearby waters to verify compliance with the agreement.

Military Activity Halted on All Fronts in the Middle East... Israeli Unilateral Action Remains a Variable

The White House’s public pressure on Israel comes because the MOU is not simply a U.S.-Iran agreement but is premised on the cessation of military action across all Middle Eastern fronts. The MOU stipulates that the United States, Iran, and their respective allies will suspend military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.

However, Israel has maintained the position that it could continue military operations in Lebanon on the grounds of Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian armed faction. According to the NYT, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel is not bound by the MOU provisions and will maintain its forces in certain parts of southern Lebanon.

Iran’s stance is that the United States must guarantee Israel’s compliance with the agreement. As a result, if Israel launches unilateral military action against Lebanon or Iran, the 60-day nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran could be jeopardized from the outset, according to the NYT.

Bloomberg reported that President Trump has grown increasingly dissatisfied with Prime Minister Netanyahu in recent weeks, even using profanity during phone calls. President Trump also said that Israel’s airstrikes on the Lebanese capital nearly derailed the agreement with Iran.

Follow-up Negotiations Begin on Nuclear and Hormuz Strait Management

Beginning on this day, the United States and Iran will conduct 60 days of discussions over Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and management of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Bloomberg reported that it remains uncertain whether the follow-up negotiations with the Iranian delegation will commence immediately in Switzerland as originally planned. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Vice President Vance mentioned that talks could take place this weekend but also noted that the schedule may change.

President Trump’s rush to frame this agreement as a diplomatic achievement is motivated by economic pressures. He stated the previous day, "I did not want to see an economic catastrophe." If the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were to be prolonged, it could trigger a spike in international oil prices and renewed inflationary pressures, creating a political burden for the White House ahead of the midterm elections.

However, separate from market stability, the structure of the agreement remains unstable. According to the WSJ, the issue of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was not specified in the 14-article MOU, even though Vice President Vance claimed to have obtained Iran’s consent. Vance stated, "Whether it’s the MOU, a gentleman’s agreement, or a final agreement, the terminology is not important. What matters is verification."

It is also difficult to say that the Strait of Hormuz has fully returned to free passage. According to Al Jazeera, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has instructed the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to expedite the processing of permit applications for commercial vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran announced it will not charge fees to applicants during the next 60 days. This can be interpreted as Iran exercising control over the strait through the permitting process, even if passage is resumed.

Iran is taking a hardline stance as the follow-up negotiations begin. According to the NYT, Iran’s new leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated in his first remarks since the signing of the MOU, "Future face-to-face talks do not mean accepting the views of the enemy," and "We will not yield to excessive demands." The NYT assessed this statement as highlighting Iran’s negotiating leverage.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.