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The Trump Administration in the United States has launched an investigation into alleged insider trading related to prediction markets, yet suspicious transactions continue to occur. There was even a case where trades betting on the possibility of U.S. airstrikes or a ceasefire, amounting to approximately 45 million dollars, were identified as suspicious. Experts note that political issues controlled by a small number of policymakers are structurally prone to trades exploiting insider information.

Polymarket Application. AP Yonhap News

According to a Bloomberg analysis on June 18 (local time), when the likelihood of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran was estimated at 6% on Polymarket, a new account purchased a large quantity of contracts betting on the "Yes" outcome. This account placed bets in four separate markets related to the timing of an end to hostilities between the two countries. If favorable outcomes were realized, the structure would yield a total profit of about 1.1 million dollars. It is known that even a single position could generate a profit of approximately 370,000 dollars.

Since the war began on February 28, numerous abnormal transactions have been detected in prediction markets. A common feature is that the trader created a new account and made large bets within just a few hours. Unlike regulated futures markets, Polymarket operates through blockchain wallets that are nearly anonymous. As a result, it is difficult to identify traders, but since blockchain records are public, it is relatively easy to analyze trading patterns.

The sector most frequently identified with suspicious transactions was also war-related. Among trades betting on the possibility of U.S. airstrikes or a ceasefire, transactions totaling about 45 million dollars were classified as abnormal. This was the largest proportion of suspicious trades on Polymarket. According to a Polymarket spokesperson, the company has reported around 100 wallets to law enforcement agencies so far. These cases have led to the first and second indictments for insider trading related to prediction markets in the United States.

Suspicious activity is not limited to any one sector. In April last year, right before President Trump announced a tariff deferral policy related to "Liberation Day," a suspicious bet was placed. In fact, a trader who bet on the ousting of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and earned 400,000 dollars was found, after investigation, to be a U.S. Army soldier. He was indicted for using classified information.

The crude oil market is also a major target of investigation. On March 23, before President Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that "Iran energy infrastructure bombing will be suspended for five days," trading volume surged. Between 6:49 and 6:51, at least 7 million barrels worth of Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts were traded, which is more than 20 times the typical trading volume. This occurred about 15 minutes before Trump's post. After the announcement, oil prices plunged by more than 14% within four minutes, while S&P 500 futures rose by about 3%.

Political criticism has also intensified. Democratic lawmakers and critics have claimed that several recent bets were placed at such opportune moments that they are difficult to attribute to mere skill or luck. Lawmakers are calling for investigations into certain trades that demonstrated excessively high accuracy. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has also launched an investigation into whether insider trading occurred in the crude oil futures market. The White House has warned staff not to place bets using confidential information. The U.S. Senate has also banned lawmakers and staff from trading in prediction markets.

Experts point out that the political and geopolitical market characteristics, where a small number of policymakers determine outcomes, are particularly vulnerable to insider trading. Joshua Della Vendover, professor at the University of San Diego, stated, "Political markets are especially vulnerable," and explained, "In political markets, information is constantly being generated. In markets where authority is concentrated among a small group of decision-makers, the risk of information leakage is high."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.