[Global Focus] Why Switzerland, Facing a Severe Low Birth Rate, Considered a “Population Cap”

Right-Wing Parties Lead Push for Immigration Restrictions
Public Anxiety Grows Amid Surge in Foreign Residents
Anti-Immigration Sentiment Spreads Across Europe

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Switzerland recently attracted global attention by holding the world’s first national referendum on a “population cap.” The proposal to limit the total population in Switzerland, a country suffering from extremely low birth rates for over 50 years, sparked considerable controversy. The referendum, initiated primarily by Swiss right-wing parties, aimed to curb the influx of immigrants. Although the measure was ultimately rejected, support reached 45%, a higher figure than expected, leading to predictions that similar referendum attempts will continue in the future. Some observers expect that, with anti-immigration sentiment rising not only in Switzerland but across the Western world, more legislative proposals to restrict the number of immigrants will emerge.

Switzerland Rejects World’s First “Population Cap” Referendum

Swiss People's Party (SVP) Swiss Sustainability Initiative Homepage

On June 14 (local time), Switzerland’s population cap referendum was rejected with 45.21% in favor and 54.79% against. The voter turnout was 58.86%. The proposed law would have set a population ceiling of 10 million, including foreigners, within Switzerland by 2050. Once the population exceeded 9.5 million, the law would have mandated stricter immigration controls, prohibited family reunification for foreign residents, and called for the termination of the Schengen Agreement, which allows open borders with the EU.

According to SwissInfo, the driving force behind this referendum was the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), the largest party in the Swiss parliament. The right-wing SVP argued that continued immigration by foreigners is causing various social disruptions in Switzerland, justifying the need for restrictions on migrants. The SVP is currently analyzing why the referendum failed and has announced plans to continue pushing for future referendums. In Switzerland, any issue can be put to a national vote if it garners signatures from at least 100,000 citizens, as stipulated by law.

The SVP has consistently pushed immigration restrictions and anti-immigration measures to national referendums in the past. In 2009, the party successfully passed a ban on the construction of minarets in Swiss mosques through a referendum. In 2021, it also passed a law banning the wearing of hijabs and burqas in public places through a national vote.

In this latest vote, rather than overtly stoking anti-immigrant sentiment, the SVP highlighted the everyday hardships faced by Swiss citizens, such as overcrowded subways during rush hour and surging housing prices, due to the rapid increase in immigrants. As a result, the approval rate for the population cap exceeded 60% in rural areas with fewer foreign residents. The turnout surpassed 58%, as not only right-wing conservatives but also politically disinterested citizens participated in the vote.

Birth Rate Plummets, Immigrants Surge... Foreigners Now Exceed 30%

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With the number of foreign residents in Switzerland rising rapidly, anti-immigration sentiment has also grown. Since the 1970s, the birth rate has dropped to just above one child per woman, while the influx of foreign residents has accelerated, prompting right-wing parties’ concerns that the country’s very identity could be undermined.

According to Deutsche Welle (DW), a German public broadcaster, Switzerland’s population stood at approximately 9.1 million as of last year, with foreigners accounting for about 30% of the total. More than 2 million foreign residents have arrived in Switzerland since the early 2000s alone. The proportion of foreign residents in Switzerland is among the highest in Europe, far surpassing Germany (19.1%), the UK (15.2%), and France (10.3%).

This has led to a situation where the population continues to grow, but the birth rate steadily declines. According to data from the World Bank (WB) and Eurostat, Switzerland’s total fertility rate fell below 2.0 in 1975, reaching 1.87, and has continued to decrease, dropping to 1.30 last year.

The BBC noted, “Switzerland has experienced a rapid surge in immigrants in a short period, leading to soaring rents, excessive development policies, public transportation congestion, and rising healthcare costs. With youth unemployment also worsening, a significant portion of the public, not just the political right, blames immigrants for these problems.”

Concerns Over Brexit-Style Economic Contraction... Opposition From Government and Industry

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The Swiss government and businesses are firmly opposed to a population cap. They are particularly concerned that scrapping the Schengen Agreement with the EU to restrict immigrants could trigger sudden economic chaos similar to the Brexit (the UK’s exit from the EU) crisis in 2016.

Even before the vote, the Swiss government warned of the potential for economic shock and officially opposed the measure. In a statement on June 13, the day before the referendum, the government warned, “A population cap could undermine national stability and negatively impact economic growth and prosperity.” The government immediately welcomed the referendum’s rejection. Swiss Minister of Justice Beat Jans hailed the outcome as a “signal of stability, openness, and reliability.”

Economiesuisse, Switzerland’s largest business association, also voiced strong opposition. With the elderly already accounting for over 20% of the population and the birth rate still falling, restricting immigration could result in a severe labor shortage. Rudolf Minsch, chief economist at Economiesuisse, criticized the policy, saying, “The population cap is a populist approach that tries to solve complex structural issues with an artificial numbers cap. It only creates the illusion of an easy fix and does nothing to address fundamental problems like the shortage of housing or transportation congestion.”

Opposition also came from industries highly dependent on foreign labor, such as pharmaceuticals, finance, technology, hospitality, and healthcare. Major Swiss companies including Nestle, Roche, and UBS issued statements before the vote, warning, “A population cap could undermine Switzerland’s economic competitiveness.” In fact, in Bern, the Swiss capital and home to many large corporations, the opposition rate to the population cap reached 84%.

Anti-Immigration Sentiment Spreads Across Europe

An anti-immigration protest that took place in London, UK, last September. Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News Agency

The anti-immigration sentiment that fueled Switzerland’s population cap debate is spreading to most Western countries. Even nations like Canada and Germany, which have traditionally welcomed immigrants, are now seeing a surge in anti-immigration attitudes.

According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Canada recently reacted to rising anti-immigration sentiment, fueled by a worsening housing crisis, by cutting its cap on international students and foreign worker permits by more than half. Germany has resumed border checks and toughened deportation procedures, while the UK has reduced the number of immigrants by more than 80% over the past three years.

The European Union (EU) recently introduced new rules on deporting immigrants. According to CNN, the European Commission agreed with member states earlier this month to revise immigration regulations, allowing asylum seekers who are denied or ordered to leave to be deported to designated third countries. The EU also announced that immigrants who do not comply with deportation procedures will lose access to welfare benefits and work permits, face fines, entry bans, and may even be subject to criminal penalties including imprisonment.

The WSJ pointed out that the hardening anti-immigration trend across Western nations is due to the fact that increased immigration has failed to deliver significant economic relief. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), economic output indicators for countries like Australia, Canada, Germany, and the UK have stagnated since 2017. Despite accepting large numbers of immigrants before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, these countries have not seen dramatic improvements in their economies.

Alan Manning, professor at the London School of Economics (LSE), told the WSJ, “Expanding immigration buys time to address demographic aging, but increasing immigration cannot be the fundamental solution to economic problems. The only immediate effect immigration has on a national economy is population growth, and no economists believe that simply increasing the population automatically benefits the economy.”

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