Iran Learns Effectiveness of Hormuz Blockade Through War...U.S. Intelligence Agencies Issue Warning

CNN Cites U.S. Intelligence Agencies
Iran Demonstrates Potential to Use Hormuz as Leverage
Shipping Industry Urges Caution Before Normalizing Hormuz

According to an analysis by U.S. intelligence agencies, the Iranian regime has demonstrated the effectiveness of its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during its war with the United States and Israel. Some point out that this has effectively shown Iran what it can use as a bargaining chip on par with nuclear weapons. In fact, it has been determined that Iran is also considering the option of simultaneously blockading the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the gateway to the Red Sea, if future peace agreement negotiations with the United States break down.

Iran Maintains Significant Military Power While Blockading the Strait

On the 16th (local time), oil tankers waiting near the Strait of Hormuz. Photo by AP Yonhap News

According to CNN on June 16 (local time), U.S. intelligence agencies recently reported that Iran has proven through the current war that it can effectively control the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global crude oil shipments.

The intelligence community particularly noted that Iran demonstrated the blockade’s effectiveness while maintaining a considerable arsenal of naval mines, fast attack boats, and missile forces. They also assessed that Iran has learned that attacking Gulf oil-producing countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is an effective pressure strategy.

According to officials, Iran is considering using Yemen's Houthi rebels, whom it supports, to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as well if negotiations collapse. If both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are paralyzed simultaneously, it would have a severe impact on global oil and maritime logistics.

Within the United States, CNN reported that there is criticism that The Trump Administration underestimated Iran’s determination to blockade the strait at the beginning of the war. The outlet also mentioned that intelligence agencies are concerned Iran could use the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as an even stronger bargaining chip in future negotiations.

A source familiar with the report told CNN, "We have effectively handed control of the Strait of Hormuz over to Iran," adding, "This is a weapon more powerful than any nuclear weapon."

Shipping Industry Expresses Caution About Reopening Hormuz

On the 16th, a female refugee is waving the Iranian flag on a highway in Lebanon. Photo by Reuters-Yonhap News

The economic media outlet CNBC reported that the shipping industry is taking a cautious stance regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is because the mines placed by Iran have not been completely removed, and the United States and Iran have differing interpretations regarding whether transit fees will be imposed on the strait.

Previously, President Donald Trump declared that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened and stated, "There will never be any permanent transit fees." However, Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on June 15, "There is an intention to charge fees for certain services provided in the strait." However, the Iranian government has not specified what services would be provided, according to The New York Times.

BIMCO, the world’s largest shipping association, stated, "The current security situation remains highly risky," expressing caution about the early resumption of vessel operations. The industry analysis is that whether things will truly return to normal depends on whether safety can be ensured during the initial phase of transit, without any additional attacks or accidents involving mines.

According to shipping data firm Kpler, assuming the initial agreement between the United States and Iran is signed and implemented as scheduled on June 19, the volume of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to recover to around 40 vessels per day one month later. This is about half the level before the war. As of June 15, approximately 118 oil tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.