[So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show] Why Has the Democratic Party's Approval Rating Fallen Behind the People Power Party?

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■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show' (Monday to Friday, 4-5 PM)

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop ■ Director: Producer Park Sumin

■ Guest: Former People Power Party Assemblyman Lee Taekyu (June 15)

※ When citing content from this article, please be sure to mention 'So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show'.

So Jongseop: Hello everyone. This is So Jongseop, and welcome to the Current Affairs Show. Today, I will be discussing recent issues with former People Power Party Assemblyman Lee Taekyu. The People Power Party’s approval rating is now 6.3 percentage points ahead of the Democratic Party. This appears to be the first time this has happened since the Lee Jae-myung administration took office. Such survey results have been released. Realmeter, commissioned by Energy Economic News, conducted a survey of 1,002 people from June 11 to 12, with the results announced on June 15. The survey was conducted via automated wireless response, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, please refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission. The People Power Party received 44.3%, while the Democratic Party received 38.0%.

People Power Party 44.3%, Democratic Party 38.0%

Lee Taekyu: This is a highly unusual development and requires a more in-depth analysis. However, at the very least, I believe that any crossover or narrowing of approval ratings between the ruling and opposition parties is closely related to the decline in the President’s performance rating. As the President’s approval rating falls, the People Power Party, as the main opposition, is seeing a corresponding rise in its own approval rating. Now, why is this happening at this time?

First of all, regarding the ballot shortage incident, the public views this not simply as a National Election Commission problem, but as a national issue. In this regard, President Lee Jae-myung failed to respond proactively, quickly, and responsibly. He tried to frame it merely as mismanagement, incompetence, and neglect of duty by the Election Commission. However, this is a major incident that infringes upon constitutional rights and is a serious blow to democracy. The President should have stepped in.

The President should have met with party leaders to reach a consensus on how to resolve this issue. Alternatively, he could have delivered a special address beforehand, outlining his plan for a solution, and clearly stated how the matter would be resolved. This should have included Election Commission reform, as well as investigations into the causes of the mismanagement. The President failed to demonstrate accountability in these areas. As a result, many citizens are expressing disappointment in both the Election Commission and the President himself.

Another factor is what could be called voter catharsis. Early in a presidential term, there is a tendency for the public to feel that the President and the ruling party need support. This used to be described as a honeymoon period. But now that the election is over, voters feel they have done enough for the administration, and that the opposition has also been judged where necessary. If voters are experiencing this catharsis, there is a possibility that support among the less committed base for President Lee Jae-myung and the ruling party may loosen.

So Jongseop: So, now that the honeymoon period is over, voters are taking a more critical view?

The President's Partisan Messaging Also Reflected in Negative Ratings

Lee Taekyu: That’s right. I also think voters have become disillusioned. Although there was a high level of trust and belief in the ruling party after the impeachment and the start of the Lee Jae-myung administration, in reality, what has actually returned to individuals? For example, the KOSPI reaching 8,000 or the semiconductor supercycle have no impact on small business owners or ordinary citizens. How is this related to young people struggling with rising rental costs? Now that the election is over, voters are facing their own reality, and with high inflation, high exchange rates, and high oil prices, many people are struggling with their livelihoods. In a situation where employees at some companies receive year-end bonuses that ordinary people could never earn in their lifetime, it’s natural that most people feel a sense of deprivation rather than satisfaction. That’s why I believe voters have become disillusioned.

Furthermore, I believe that since the middle to end of the local elections, negative evaluations of the President have increased significantly. The President tried to force the withdrawal of indictments, and even in the first anniversary press conference after the election, he did not clearly state that he would give up on that. There was also the excessive political exploitation of the Starbucks incident, and what concerned me the most was the message urging people to vote. Of course, the President can encourage voter turnout, but the message itself contained an element of hostility toward the opposition. In seeing this, I felt that the President had shifted from pragmatism to partisanship.

So Jongseop: You don't view the rise in support for the People Power Party as a result of their own performance, then?

Lee Taekyu: The approval rating has gone up because they are benefiting by default, not because the People Power Party has demonstrated any noteworthy achievements to the public after the election. It is a result of gaining by contrast. We can say that voters are now watching the situation more critically.

So Jongseop: According to a recent Gallup Korea survey on preferred future leaders, former leader Cho Kuk ranked first among the broader ruling bloc. Although Oh Se-hoon and Han Dong-hoon are leading overall, among ruling bloc candidates, former leader Cho Kuk is first, followed by Prime Minister Kim Minseok and Chief of Staff Kang Hoonsik. The Gallup Korea survey was conducted from June 9 to 11, asking 1,002 adults aged 18 and over nationwide who they think should lead the country in the future. (The survey used randomly generated wireless phone numbers and interviewer calls, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, please refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.)

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Cho Kuk Has a Certain Base in Honam, but Expansion Remains a Separate Issue

Lee Taekyu: The issue of mass appeal and the fandom associated with former leader Cho Kuk seem to be factors, and both he and the Cho Kuk Innovation Party have long had a certain support base in the Honam region. This time as well, support in Honam was much higher. In the future leader survey, former leader Cho Kuk received 7% overall, but in Honam, he garnered 21%. Similarly, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party has only about 2% support nationwide, but in Honam, it reaches about 11%.

He has a support base in Honam. So, we need to consider the region’s unique factors. Honam is known for its strategic voting patterns. If there is no strong local candidate, Honam voters have often selected candidates from other regions. In the absence of a strong local candidate, it seems that personal fandom for former leader Cho Kuk played a role here, but whether this support can be expanded is a separate issue.

One thing is clear: even among prominent Democratic Party politicians, including current leader Jeong Cheongrae, their public recognition does not match that of Cho Kuk. I believe this is reflected in the survey results.

So Jongseop: Although former Prime Minister Kim Bu-gyeom was defeated in Daegu this time, he gained a significant number of votes and demonstrated a willingness to sacrifice himself by running. From a narrative perspective, does he have a political future?

Kim Bu-gyeom May Be Called Back If Uncertainty Remains Among Democratic Party Frontrunners

Lee Taekyu: If there is ongoing uncertainty about the Democratic Party's leading candidates, Kim Bu-gyeom could be brought back. After all, Kim Bu-gyeom challenged regionalism by running in Daegu, which is reminiscent of the late President Roh Moo-hyun. That should not be taken lightly. The fact that Kim Bu-gyeom received as many votes as he did is because, while he is not as passionate as President Roh, he possesses many qualities that set him apart from other Democratic Party politicians, even though he belongs to the party.

He is not as aggressive or harsh by comparison, while many Democratic Party politicians tend to be more combative. In this respect, he has strengths that others lack. Particularly, although it is unclear how much he can point to specific achievements, he has always emphasized coexistence in politics. That is, in fact, the value most needed in Korea's current and future political landscape. If the party’s current frontrunners do not provide clear answers, Kim Bu-gyeom could be called back. Even though he lost this time, his run for Daegu mayor could strongly remain in the minds of voters and the public.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.