[Good Morning Market] Oil Prices Drop, Semiconductor Rally... KOSPI Expected to Open Higher

Reduced Concentration Among KOSPI Stocks
Potential for Sector Rotation Market

The domestic stock market is expected to open higher, driven by falling oil prices due to expectations of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the rally in U.S. semiconductor stocks.

On the 15th, the KOSPI index surged more than 5% in early trading, triggering a buy-side car, with the domestic stock market index displayed on the electronic board of the dealing room at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul. 2026.6.15 Photo by Kang Jinhyung

On the 15th (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,671.03, up 468.77 points (0.92%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 rose 122.83 points (1.65%) to 7,554.29, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 795.10 points (3.07%) to close at 26,683.94.

Stock prices rose as the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil declined following the successful conclusion of ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. After the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on the ceasefire, WTI prices fell to the 80–81 dollar range. This is seen as a signal of easing energy inflation and could be a factor in lowering expectations for further tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Of course, there is a possibility that the peace negotiations may reach a stalemate due to issues such as uranium. However, over the past three months of war, the market has shifted its attention from the war itself to the earnings momentum centered on artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor stocks. On this day, semiconductor stocks such as Micron (up 10.8%) and Nvidia (up 3.5%) closed higher due to continued expectations for AI demand.

Today, the domestic stock market is expected to open higher as a result of falling oil prices driven by expectations of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the rally in U.S. semiconductor stocks. Since these positive factors from the U.S. market were already reflected in the domestic market the previous day, semiconductor stocks are likely to lead the early trading, followed by a rotation into other sectors.

Recently, as the KOSPI recovered above the 8,500 level, the concentration phenomenon has eased. Last month, when the KOSPI soared 28.5%, the gap between the average number of rising and falling stocks per month was -254, indicating that only a small number of stocks saw their prices increase. However, in the course of KOSPI's rise this month, that gap has narrowed significantly to -26.

This easing of concentration could lead to a market environment where sectors are catching up with each other. Last month, only four sectors posted a higher rate of gain than the KOSPI (28.5%)—including IT hardware (111%) and semiconductors (58%). However, this month, 11 sectors—including retail/distribution (21%), insurance (12%), and banking (12%)—have outperformed the KOSPI (0.8%).

Ji Yong Han, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "The easing of oil price pressures due to the ceasefire and improved supply-demand conditions for KOSPI stocks among foreign investors are creating favorable market conditions overall. It would help improve returns to maintain at least a neutral or overweight position in major sectors with a high probability of catching up, such as shipbuilding, defense, securities, power equipment, and banking."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.