Renewable Energy Targets Skewed Toward Solar Power... "Risk of Major Blackouts Increases"

Energy Professors' Association Hosts "Energy Policy, a Matter of Survival" Forum

Energy Security, Economic Feasibility, and Environmental Balance Needed

87% of Renewable Energy Capacity Targets Focused on Solar Power

"Need to Reestablish the Energy Policy Implementation Framework"

Sunggeol Hong, Professor Emeritus of Public Administration at Kookmin University; Juhun Park, Professor of Economics at Dongguk Women's University; Joohyun Moon, Professor of Energy Engineering at Dankook University; and Hyungjin Sim, Professor of Nuclear Engineering at Seoul National University, are discussing at a debate hosted by the Association of Korean Energy Professors held at the Korea Press Center on the 15th. Photo by Heejong Kang

Professors specializing in energy have unanimously stated that it is time for South Korea’s energy policy to shift toward practicality. They pointed out that renewable energy supply targets should be realistically adjusted, and there should be a balanced approach between nuclear power and liquefied natural gas (LNG) generation to ensure energy security.

At the discussion forum titled "Energy Policy, a Matter of Survival," hosted by the Professors' Association for the Rationalization of Energy Policy (Energy Professors' Association) at the Seoul Press Center on June 15, Jooheon Park, Professor of Economics at Dongguk University, assessed that "South Korea’s energy policy is currently focused on climate and environmental issues, prioritizing carbon neutrality." He emphasized, "There is a need to transition to a balanced energy policy that considers energy security, economic feasibility, and environmental protection in response to changes in the energy landscape."

According to Professor Park, in order for the world to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, as of June 15, 2026, it is necessary to replace 1.3 million tons of oil equivalent (mTOE) of fossil energy with carbon-free energy every day until 2050. This would require the daily installation of either one nuclear power plant, approximately 2,000 wind turbines, or about 4 million solar panels to reach the target.

Professor Park analyzed that, due to the recent AI revolution, the wars in Ukraine and Iran, and the need to balance energy costs with industrial competitiveness, both the United States and Europe are now recognizing energy policy as a matter of national security and a core foundation of industry and the economy, and are adjusting their policy priorities accordingly.

Professor Park pointed out that South Korea, too, should take a pragmatic approach to energy policy, and proposed the following: setting a challenging yet achievable Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for greenhouse gas reduction, active utilization of nuclear power, gradual expansion of renewables, maintaining a certain proportion of LNG, international cooperation in developing carbon-neutral technologies, and improving climate change adaptation capacity.

Juhyun Moon, Professor of Energy Engineering at Dankook University, criticized the government’s first basic plan for renewable energy, stating that it is fixated on numerical targets while ignoring physical realities and South Korea’s unique circumstances. He stressed that, to ensure national energy security, there must be a shift toward a rational path that prioritizes the regulation of supply speed and grid stability.

Professor Moon cited an example from the Lunar New Year holiday in February, when solar power supplied 47.4% (23.7GW) of the nation’s total electricity demand during the daytime, surpassing nuclear power (15.9GW), and warned that this serves as an early indication of the structural risks associated with excessive expansion of solar power.

He also referenced Germany’s “Dunkelflaute” (a phenomenon where both solar and wind power drop sharply) and the sharp decline in renewables during the evening hours in California, USA, to illustrate that grid stability risks universally intensify as reliance on renewables increases.

Professor Moon noted that, as of the end of 2025, renewable energy generation capacity is projected to be 37.1GW, and reaching 100GW by 2030 would require an annual roll-out of 12.6-15.7GW for the next four to five years—a physical limit up to 3.4 times greater than the previous maximum annual deployment (4.6GW/year). Even if the target is achieved, he warned that without accompanying investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure, the installed facilities could become useless.

He further explained that 87% of the renewable energy capacity target is heavily skewed toward solar power, making the grid highly vulnerable to major gaps caused by weather conditions and resulting in excessive reliance on nuclear and LNG backup, thereby increasing the risk of large-scale blackouts.

Professor Moon emphasized that, unlike the US or Europe, South Korea is an “electricity grid island” due to its separation from North Korea, so it must resolve crises independently. He called for a comprehensive policy overhaul based on engineering rationality, including: phased expansion only after grid absorption capacity is verified, restructuring for a balanced portfolio, clearly defining the role of nuclear and LNG as backup, and making infrastructure investments in advance.

Hyungjin Shim, Professor of Nuclear Engineering at Seoul National University, underscored that, as the world faces not only mid- to long-term electrification demand for carbon neutrality but also a surge in power needs from AI data centers, expanding the role of nuclear energy is an existential strategy for South Korea.

Professor Shim stated, "If we assume an increase in the share of nuclear power from the current 30% to 35% by 2050 to achieve carbon neutrality, enhance energy security, and boost national industrial competitiveness, it will require the construction of 20 additional large nuclear reactors and 12 small modular reactors (SMRs)." He argued that the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand should include at least three new large reactors and at least two SMRs, with the goal of commencing operations between 2039 and 2040.

He also cited a report by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), stating that the actual system cost of variable renewables can more than double the simple Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), and therefore, power generation plans should be developed based on the total system cost of electricity (SCBOE).

Sung-gul Hong, Honorary Professor of Public Administration at Kookmin University, who participated as a designated discussant, emphasized, "Energy policy is a key element for national survival, but there is a long time lag between planning and implementation, making short-term responses difficult. It is essential to establish long-term goals, periodically revise and supplement them, and manage them comprehensively."

Professor Hong noted that, with the abolition of the Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth in March 2022, the Energy Master Plan—which was the highest-level energy plan in South Korea—lost its legal basis, and he stressed the urgent need to reinstate a comprehensive energy plan.

Meanwhile, the Energy Professors' Association, launched on March 1, 2018, currently has 225 members from 61 universities nationwide. To date, it has held 18 forums and seminars on energy policy-related topics and issued 17 statements. Currently, Sung-gul Hong (Kookmin University), Jooheon Park (Dongduk Women's University), Junshin Lee (Sungkyunkwan University), and Jaejoon Jeong (Pusan National University) serve as co-representatives for the second term.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.