After the Middle East War... KOSPI Hinges on 'Interest Rates' and 'Semiconductor Earnings'

Direction of Interest Rates to Be Decided at U.S. FOMC Meeting on the 18th

Even a Continued Rate Freeze Stance Would Be Positive for the Korean Stock Market

Micron and Samsung Electronics Earnings Reports Are Also Key Variables

On the 15th, in the early session, the KOSPI index surged more than 5%, triggering a buy-sidecar, with the domestic stock market index displayed on the electronic board in the dealing room at the headquarters of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul. 2026.6.15 Photo by Kang Jinhyung

With the conclusion of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, the Korean stock market soared, and key variables likely to determine further gains include interest rates and the earnings performance of semiconductor companies.

The Direction of U.S. Interest Rates at the FOMC on the 18th Is Key

On June 15, Daishin Securities cited the direction of U.S. interest rates as the most important factor that will determine the future movement of the Korean stock market following the end of the U.S.-Iran conflict. The company analyzed that if there is a growing possibility of a rate freeze at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve scheduled for June 18, the Korean stock market could take another leap forward.

Lee Kyungmin, a researcher at Daishin Securities, stated, "The remaining challenge after the end of the conflict is the outcome of the June FOMC meeting, which will be held soon," and explained, "While the dot plot at the March FOMC left open the possibility of one rate cut this year, recent statements from Fed officials suggest a higher likelihood of a rate freeze or even a rate hike this year."

Lee also commented, "Given the recent employment surprise and the higher Consumer Price Index (CPI), it is inevitable that the dot plot will be revised upward. However, if the FOMC signals a rate freeze for this year and next year, this could actually serve as a surprise momentum for the market." He emphasized, "Remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the press conference are also important, as this will be his first press conference since taking office, offering insight into his monetary policy stance." Lee predicted, "Considering this is the first FOMC meeting and press conference since being appointed by U.S. President Donald Trump, there is a high likelihood that he will express a dovish (monetary easing) rather than a hawkish (monetary tightening) stance."

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, "Due to concerns about inflation, the June FOMC is likely to be more hawkish than previous meetings, but the market has already been preemptively pricing this in through recent stock corrections and short-term rate shocks." She forecast, "Unless an aggressively hawkish outcome emerges, such as more than one rate hike this year, the negative impact on the stock market will be limited."

Micron and Samsung Electronics Earnings Announcements Are Also Crucial Variables

After the FOMC, the earnings season for the second quarter will begin in earnest. The performance of Micron, the U.S. memory semiconductor company, to be announced on June 24, is of particular importance. Micron's results serve as a barometer for its competitors, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. If Micron's earnings beat market expectations, there is a higher likelihood that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will also announce strong results, which would be a positive factor for the Korean stock market.

In Korea, the outlook for earnings is expected to be revised upward, centering on Samsung Electronics, which is scheduled to release its second-quarter results in the first week of July. According to financial information provider FnGuide, the consensus for Samsung Electronics' second-quarter operating profit among domestic securities firms is around 86 trillion won. Some even predict that profits could reach as high as 100 trillion won. If Samsung Electronics reports results that exceed expectations, the overall level of the stock market could rise further.

Vehicles commuting around the shopping area of Godeok International New City near Samsung Electronics Pyeongtaek Campus are busy. 2026.04.24 Photo by Dongju Yoon

Lee predicted, "Currently, the KOSPI's 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) is only 7.34 times, which is a deep value zone. Upward revisions of earnings forecasts will increase upward pressure on the KOSPI and further expand its upside potential."

With improved semiconductor earnings, the value of the entire group of stocks related to AI infrastructure may also be revised upward. Na Jeonghwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, "With Micron's earnings on June 24 marking the start of the second-quarter earnings season in earnest, if the second-quarter results of big tech companies are confirmed to be strong, then not only semiconductors, but also an AI infrastructure investment strategy targeting power equipment, nuclear power, and energy storage systems (ESS) may once again prove effective."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.