"1.2 Million People to Disappear"…24 Years Until Seoul Becomes an "Elderly Republic"

Seoul's Population to Drop to 8.1 Million by 2050
Working-age Population Declining at an Accelerating Pace

There are growing concerns that Seoul's population could decline to around 8.1 million by 2050, with the proportion of young people and the core working-age population dropping significantly, leading to the possibility of a "Seoul left with only the elderly" becoming a reality.

Elderly people are drinking beverages and talking at a fast food restaurant in Seoul. Yonhap News.

According to the Seoul Institute on June 14, Seoul's population peaked at 10.93 million in 1992, then stagnated, and has been declining for more than a decade since 2010.

The era of "10 million Seoul" ended in 2016, recording a population of 9,930,616. As of 2025, Seoul's population is estimated at 9.34 million. The key issue is that the working-age population is rapidly shrinking.

Seoul's working-age population (ages 15–64) peaked at 7.79 million in 2010, but the rate of decline has been accelerating. The figure remained above 7.5 million between 2010 and 2015, but then decreased rapidly, dropping below 7 million in 2022.

The Seoul Institute estimates that by 2050, Seoul's population will fall to about 8.1 million. The working-age population is projected to drop to 4.51 million in the same year, with those aged 25–49 accounting for only 9.7%. The share of those aged 15–24 is also expected to decline from 12.0% in 2020 to 6.1% by 2050.

As both aging and low birth rates progress simultaneously, the number of people in need of support increases, while the working-age population supporting them becomes increasingly thin. The Seoul Institute analyzed that this trend could lead to chronic economic stagnation, as it results in reduced consumption and increased savings.

The Seoul Institute also explained that for every 1% increase in workers aged 55 or older, the growth rate of labor productivity per capita decreases by about 0.3%, indicating potential pressure on labor productivity.

As a solution, the Seoul Institute suggested utilizing the elderly workforce, stating, "Expanding employment among the elderly is an important policy tool that can partially offset the decline in growth rates." The institute further emphasized the need for institutional support, including extending the retirement age, reemployment opportunities, and wage peak systems.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.