"The Largest Since 1950 Is Coming": Chilling Warning as Disruptions Have Already Begun
NOAA Declares Official Start of 'El Niño'
Combined With Ongoing Conflicts, Fertilizer Shortages and Food Crisis Possible
The El Niño phenomenon has officially begun. El Niño refers to the event in which rising sea surface temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean trigger abnormal weather events across the globe.
According to a report by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, which was cited by CNN and reported by Yonhap News on June 11 (local time), the strongest super El Niño since 1950 is expected to occur this year.
For an event to be classified as a super El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific must be at least 2 degrees Celsius higher than average. Such super El Niño events are relatively rare. The most recent occurrences were in 2015–2016, 1997–1998, and 1982–1983.
The Climate Prediction Center analyzed that, over the past several months, abnormally warm ocean water has shifted in large volumes from the western Pacific to the eastern tropical Pacific due to changes in wind direction.
El Niño can intensify heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall, as well as increase volatility in agricultural production, trade costs, and raw material prices. While climate change does not directly cause El Niño, warmer oceans and atmosphere can amplify the intensity of heat waves and heavy rain. There are warnings that El Niño could further strain health and agricultural systems at a time when the global economy is already under pressure due to the war in the Middle East.
El Niño is defined by a condition in which the three-month average sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific monitoring region remains at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal for more than five months. According to observation data, from late April to mid-May, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific approached the El Niño threshold. Meteorologists had anticipated the recurrence of El Niño months in advance based on this data.
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Experts have warned that this year's El Niño could see sea surface temperature rises exceeding 3 degrees Celsius, making it the most intense event on record. In the context of ongoing global warming, this is seen as potentially catastrophic. The Climate Prediction Center added that with the combination of the ongoing global warming and a super El Niño, next year is likely to surpass the heat records set in 2024, becoming the hottest year in Earth's history.
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