Nomura: "Semiconductor Super Cycle Only Beginning... Samsung Electronics and SK hynix Are Top Picks"
Nomura Securities' Outlook for the Korean Stock Market
KOSPI Target Raised to 11,000
Nomura Securities has analyzed that the semiconductor super cycle is just beginning. The possibility of Korea being included on the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) developed markets watch list was estimated at 60%.
On June 12, Nomura Securities held its "2026 Korea Economic and Stock Market Media Briefing" at the Seoul Finance Center in Jung-gu, Seoul, and made these statements.
Jung Changwon, Co-Head of Asia Research at Nomura Securities, emphasized, "If you look at this year's monthly memory revenue, it is showing a vertical upward trend," adding, "This is something we've never seen before." Jung noted, "Investors tend to wonder whether they should sell once memory prices level off after a sharp increase, but what matters is valuation," and stressed, "Considering this, I believe the semiconductor super cycle is just beginning."
On May 20, Nomura set the upper target for the KOSPI at 11,000. The target stock prices for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix were raised to 590,000 won and 4 million won, respectively.
Park Seyoung, Head of Korea Research, cited the AI semiconductor cycle along with increasing power demand as major factors for the KOSPI's rise. Park said, "While the AI value chain is central, defense and automotive sectors will also drive the stock market," and suggested Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Hyundai Rotem, Kia, and Samsung SDI as top picks.
Park estimated that Korea's chances of being included on the MSCI developed markets watch list in the announcement later this month are about 60%. However, this is not Nomura Securities' official position.
He explained, "MSCI has cited issues related to the foreign exchange market as the reason Korea has not been included on the watch list every year," adding, "However, the government is making efforts towards 24-hour foreign exchange trading, and aside from this, there appears to be no reason for exclusion."
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The won-dollar exchange rate is expected to remain high for the time being. Park Jungwoo, Nomura economist, said, "We expect the exchange rate to fall to 1,470 won by the end of the year and to 1,420 won next year, but it will likely stay in the 1,500 won range through the third quarter of this year," adding, "Most believe there are not many factors for a rapid drop in the exchange rate in the short term."
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