What Good Is Sheer Volume?... Even with 450 Trillion Won Poured In, Samsung and SK Hynix Remain Unmatched [Chip Talk]

CXMT and YMTC Near Shanghai STAR Market Listing
Targeting the 450 Trillion Won AI Data Center Boom
High-Performance Memory Technology Gap in the Spotlight
"Premium Strength of Samsung and SK hynix Set to Shine"

The two leading forces in China's semiconductor ambitions—Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC)—are both gearing up for their initial public offerings (IPOs). With China ramping up its capital offensive, the market is closely watching whether the so-called "Big 3" dominance in the global memory market could be shaken. However, some industry analysts point out that the IPOs of these Chinese firms may instead serve as an opportunity to highlight the overwhelming technological prowess and market dominance of South Korean semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

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China’s Memory Giants Ride 450 Trillion Won AI Data Center Boom

As of June 14, according to the semiconductor industry and foreign media, the Chinese government has announced a massive localization plan, pledging to invest about 2 trillion yuan (approximately 450 trillion won) over the next five years to build artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and to raise the AI semiconductor self-sufficiency rate to over 80%. As the United States blocks exports of high-performance AI accelerators such as those from Nvidia to China, the country is essentially declaring: "If you won’t sell to us, we’ll build it ourselves."

Among these efforts, CXMT and YMTC are considered the core engines of the domestic infrastructure China is aiming to establish. CXMT, often called the pride of Chinese DRAM, recently passed the preliminary review for a STAR Market listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and could launch its IPO and new listing as early as the end of June or early July. The target amount to be raised in this IPO is 29.5 billion yuan (about 6.7 trillion won).

Of the funds raised, 13 billion yuan (about 2.9 trillion won) will be allocated for advanced process conversion, while 9 billion yuan (about 2 trillion won) is earmarked for research and development (R&D) of DRAM and high bandwidth memory (HBM). As of the first quarter of this year, CXMT ranks fourth globally in DRAM market share with about 8%, and is expected to post explosive growth in 2026, with projected annual sales of 39 billion dollars (up 357% year-on-year) and operating profit of 24.9 billion dollars (up 64%), driven by rising memory prices and major capacity expansions.

YMTC, a powerhouse in 3D NAND flash, also officially filed for listing guidance with the Hubei Securities Regulatory Bureau this May and is on the brink of submitting its application for STAR Market listing. Currently, both Phase 1 and 2 of its Wuhan fabs are running at full capacity. YMTC plans to use all the IPO funds to expand its 'Fab 2B' in Wuhan, aiming to boost its production capacity (CAPA) by approximately 67% year-on-year.

Memory Big 3 Face Tightening Tech Race

Both companies are rapidly closing the technology gap with the memory "Big 3." For CXMT, its DDR5 yield rate reportedly exceeded 80% last year, and its mass-produced low-power DRAM, LPDDR5X, is already being supplied to major Chinese device manufacturers such as Xiaomi.

YMTC drew industry attention at Asia’s largest IT exposition, "Computex 2026," by unveiling its proprietary 294-layer 3D TLC product based on its unique "Xtacking" technology. Xtacking is YMTC’s manufacturing method that produces the "cell wafer" (which stores data) and the "circuit wafer" (which controls it) separately, then stacks them together like a sandwich. This approach is said to significantly improve data transfer speeds and spatial efficiency compared to conventional methods. Of particular note, YMTC has narrowed the layer gap with Samsung Electronics, whose mass production NAND chips have 286 layers, to single digits.

Minhee Kang, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, explained, "In terms of wafer production capacity alone, Chinese companies could produce over one million Huawei Ascend chips per year, but due to HBM supply constraints, actual production remains below 300,000 units. If CXMT begins full-scale HBM mass production, it could become a turning point in alleviating the memory bottleneck in China’s AI accelerator supply chain." It is also worth noting that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are reportedly considering adopting YMTC’s Xtacking-based hybrid bonding patents, which further demonstrates that YMTC’s technology is approaching global standards.

"An Insurmountable Wall of High Performance"... Why China’s IPOs Could Benefit Korean Semiconductors

Despite the aggressive moves by China’s memory giants, experts unanimously agree that an overwhelming technological gap remains between them and domestic (Korean) companies. For example, all of the DDR5 and LPDDR5X chips currently mass-produced by CXMT, as well as the HBM3 (4th generation) chips at the sample supply stage, are based on legacy (older) manufacturing processes, meaning there is a significant disparity in die competitiveness, speed, and power efficiency compared to Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

Moreover, with the memory "Big 3"—Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron—converting up to 40% of advanced wafer production lines to HBM, the global supply of conventional DRAM is expected to remain extremely tight through year-end. Even if the rise of China’s self-sufficiency drives up legacy product consumption, the premium market supply shortage rally is unlikely to subside.

Hoejoon Yoo, professor at the Department of Electrical Engineering at KAIST (Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology), commented, "Chinese companies often exaggerate their technological capabilities, but a thorough review reveals that they still lag behind us in terms of mass production and core technologies. With the immense scale of the AI market, it’s now too large for the memory supercycle to peak solely due to the flood of Chinese memory production."

Dongwon Kim, Head of Research at KB Securities, analyzed, "The listing of CXMT could stoke concerns over intensified competition, but due to technological gaps and differences in customer structure, it seems virtually impossible for CXMT to disrupt the landscape of high-performance server DRAM markets such as HBM, DDR5, and LPDDR5. The CXMT IPO may be a competitive variable for Taiwanese DRAM companies, but in the high-performance AI memory market, it is expected to highlight Samsung Electronics’ differentiated technology, customer base, and potential for structural profit improvement, ultimately serving as a trigger for Samsung Electronics’ revaluation."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.