'Agricultural Labor Shortage' Threatens Future Food Security

"The threat to future food security may not stem from a lack of farmland, but rather from a shortage of agricultural workers."

A new projection warns that a decline in the agricultural labor force could jeopardize future food security. This analysis, conducted amid falling birth rates and rural depopulation, examines the impacts of shrinking agricultural labor, standing in contrast to the traditional focus of food security and climate change research, which has centered on the question of "how much farmland can be secured."

(Top row from left) Professor Nicklas Fossel, Professor Haewon Jeon, (Bottom row from left) Professor Hyungjun Kim, Ph.D. candidate Hongtak Lee. KAIST

On June 12, KAIST announced that a research team led by Professor Kim Hyungjun of the Department of AI Futuristics (also affiliated with the Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy), in collaboration with Professor Jeon Haewon (Graduate School of Green Growth and Sustainability) and Professor Nicklas Forsell of the KI Climate-Environment-Energy Research Institute, as well as Professor Taikan Oki of the University of Tokyo, reached this conclusion through a joint study.

The joint research team analyzed the impact of declining agricultural labor on future food production, posing the question: "What happens if there is farmland but no one left to farm it?"

The analysis utilized five scenarios that combine the international scenario frameworks SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) and RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), which are commonly used to predict the trajectory of future societies and climate change.

SSP assumes directions of social change, such as population growth, economic development, and technological advancement, while RCP presents possible future climates based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions.

During the analysis, the joint team found that many countries have already experienced rural population decline due to low birth rates and urban concentration (migration to manufacturing and service industries). They determined that such changes could have a substantial impact on future food production.

Notably, the team incorporated the variable of agricultural labor force into their future projections for the first time. In contrast to previous analyses, which focused on the amount of farmland available and projected food demand, this study also considered the "number of people who can actually farm." The defining feature of this research is its inclusion of a scenario where, even if sufficient farmland and favorable climate conditions exist, food production could still be constrained due to a shortage of agricultural workers.

AI-generated image. KAIST

The analysis found that, in most regions worldwide, the area of farmland that can actually be utilized will decrease due to a lack of agricultural labor. In some areas, the shortage of agricultural workers is predicted to become a greater limiting factor than climate or soil conditions.

The problem is that, amid rapid technological advancement, the decline in the agricultural labor force is unlikely to be resolved easily. While technological progress can increase the amount of land that a single person can cultivate, more people tend to move into manufacturing and service sectors as industries develop. As a result, even as the area of arable land expands, the shortage of people willing and able to farm may worsen.

These findings highlight the importance of sustainable development models. If cross-border migration remains restricted, advanced countries may suffer from a worsening shortage of agricultural labor, while some low-income countries could see an excessive increase in the agricultural population. This demonstrates that migration policy and food security are closely intertwined.

Professor Kim explained, "Previous research on food security and climate change has focused on 'how much farmland can be secured.' The typical approach has been to predict the future by calculating how suitable climate and soil will be for farming and projecting changes in food demand."

He continued, "Our joint research team analyzed the future food issue from a different perspective by taking the decline in the agricultural labor force into account. As a result, we concluded that real-world social issues such as low birth rates and rural aversion may exert an even greater influence on future food security and climate change response. This will provide a more realistic basis for assessing the potential for future farmland utilization."

Meanwhile, doctoral candidate Lee Hongtak of the Moon Soul Graduate School of Future Strategy was the first author of the study, with Professor Kim serving as corresponding author. The results were published on June 1 in the international journal Nature Sustainability.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.