Trump: "Possible End-of-War Agreement with Iran as Early as This Weekend"...Markets Rally Across the Board (Comprehensive)
"Airstrike on Iran Canceled Three Hours Before Launch"
KOSPI Reclaims 8,000 Mark...Sharp Surge
U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly canceled additional airstrikes against Iran and announced that a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the conflict could be signed as early as this weekend. Although Iran has not yet given its final approval, expectations for the end of hostilities have grown in the market. The KOSPI surged at the opening, triggering a buy-side circuit breaker, and reclaimed the 8,000-point mark. In just one day, concerns about a full-scale war shifted to hopes for peace. However, some caution that excessive optimism should be avoided, as negotiations previously broke down in April.
Trump: "MOU Could Be Signed As Early As This Weekend"...Sudden Shift from Hardline Stance
On June 11 (local time), President Trump held a press conference in the Oval Office and declared, "We have reached a great settlement regarding the Iran war," adding, "The document is almost finalized and will be completed in the coming days." He went on to say, "A signing ceremony could take place in Europe as early as this weekend, with Vice President J.D. Vance potentially in attendance."
President Trump praised the new MOU, claiming it had led to Iran abandoning its nuclear ambitions. He stated, "Most importantly, we have reached an agreement under which Iran will never possess nuclear weapons. That was the ultimate goal behind everything we have endured (the war). Therefore, this is a very significant achievement," he emphasized.
Just five hours before making these comments, President Trump had issued a series of strong statements against Iran. Earlier that morning, on his social media platform Truth Social, he warned, "We will strike Iran VERY HARD tonight," adding, "We could seize Kharg Island, a key hub for Iran's oil exports." However, by the afternoon, he posted on Truth Social that "the final content of the agreement has been approved both conceptually and in detail" and that "the time and place of the signing will be announced soon."
It is also reported that a planned U.S. military airstrike against Iran was suddenly called off that day. According to NBC News, citing government officials, "The U.S. military had already received the order for airstrikes and prepared munitions," but "three hours before launching missiles into Iranian territory, President Trump announced the agreement with Iran, and the operation was canceled."
However, neither the U.S. nor Iran has publicly disclosed the contents of the MOU. President Trump described the MOU as "somewhat conceptual," but said it would be "a very strong and detailed MOU." Al Jazeera predicted that the agreement would likely include a 60-day ceasefire extension, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, discussions on highly enriched uranium during the ceasefire period, and lifting of sanctions against Iran, all issues that arose during previous negotiations.
In Just One Day, War Fears Shift to Hopes for Peace
The market reacted positively to Trump's remarks. On this day, the KOSPI opened at 8,263.85, up 6.44% from the previous session, and continued to climb, trading at 8,385.13 as of 10:05 a.m., up 7.92%. Due to the sharp rise early in the session, a buy-side circuit breaker was triggered at around 9:06 a.m. The KOSDAQ index also surged, trading at 1,034.86, up 3.80%, reclaiming the 1,000-point threshold.
Hopes for an end to the war pushed Korean stock markets higher. As of 10:08 a.m., Samsung Electronics was trading at 335,500 won, up 12.21% from the previous session. SK hynix also rose 8.85% to 2,287,000 won. Other major large-cap stocks were also on the rise, including SK Square (up 8.96%), Samsung Electro-Mechanics (up 7.59%), Hyundai Motor (up 6.20%), LG Energy Solution (up 5.98%), Samsung Life Insurance (up 8.63%), and Kia (up 5.06%).
Overnight, the New York stock market also gained for the same reason. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.86% from the previous session, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.75% and 2.54%, respectively. Major semiconductor stocks soared, with Intel up 9.3%, Micron up 11.6%, AMD up 8%, and SanDisk up 14.50%, pushing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 7.91%.
Iran: "Final Text Complete, Approval Still Pending"
Contrary to President Trump's remarks suggesting the MOU could be signed immediately, Iran has taken a cautious stance, stating that there are still procedures remaining before final approval. Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told the state-run IRNA in an interview, "The draft text of the agreement has been finalized and there were no concessions or compromises on key demands," but added, "Final approval is pending until the authorities reach their final decision."
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also acknowledged the high likelihood of an MOU being reached but maintained that the final approval process is still ongoing. Fars News Agency, under the IRGC, reported, "Qatar mediated yesterday, leading the U.S. to withdraw additional demands. The likelihood of approval by the supreme leadership has increased." However, the process will only be complete once the approval of Iran's new leader Mojtaba Khamenei is granted, in contrast to President Trump's remarks.
Axios, citing multiple sources, reported, "Iranian officials said during a meeting in Tehran on Thursday (the 11th) that a principled agreement on the MOU had been reached, but final approval from the supreme leader is still required."
U.S.-Iran Third Round of Talks Imminent...Concerns Over Repeat of 'No Deal'
Some voices warn of the possibility that negotiations could break down again. The first and second rounds of talks in April ended in failure, as both sides were unable to narrow their differences. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) pointed out, "Major issues such as Iran's nuclear program and the lifting of economic sanctions remain unresolved, so last-minute complications could arise before the agreement is signed," and noted that "President Trump has repeatedly announced that a deal was imminent, but there have been several cases where no actual agreement was reached."
During the first round of negotiations on April 11, the U.S. delegation, led by Vice President J.D. Vance, met with Iran in Pakistan to negotiate an end to the conflict, but talks broke down. On April 26, the second round was scheduled but the U.S. delegation ultimately canceled its attendance.
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Al Jazeera reported that detailed discussions are still ongoing on Iran's nuclear abandonment, the release of frozen funds, and payment methods.
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