[Good Morning Market] "KOSPI Expected to Open Lower"... Internal and External Factors Fueling Market Uncertainty

Potential for U.S. Rate Hike and Upward Pressure on Oil Prices
Growing Profit-Taking Ahead of SpaceX IPO
Simultaneous Expiration of Single-Stock Leverage Futures and Options

The KOSPI is expected to start lower due to both domestic and external uncertainties. The risks have increased because of several factors: the possibility of a U.S. interest rate hike, the potential for higher oil prices, profit-taking moves ahead of the SpaceX initial public offering (IPO), and the likelihood of increased volatility due to the simultaneous expiration of futures and options for single-stock leverage positions.

The KOSPI index opened at 7,697.76, up 213.35 points from the previous trading day, as the current status of the domestic stock market was displayed on the electronic board in the Hanabank dealing room in Jung-gu, Seoul on the 9th. On the same day, the won-dollar exchange rate started trading at 1,529.4 won, down 5.6 won from the previous trading day. Photo by Jinhyung Kang, June 9, 2026.

On June 10 (local time), all major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 49,918.78, down 953.33 points (1.87%) from the previous trading day. The S&P 500, which is weighted toward large-cap stocks, lost 119.66 points (1.62%) to close at 7,266.99, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 509.32 points (1.98%) to 25,169.50.

While inflation indicators matched consensus estimates, expectations of an interest rate hike are creating a restrictive environment for U.S. equities. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May rose 4.2% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased 2.8% over the same period, both in line with consensus. According to the Cleveland Federal Reserve’s Inflation Nowcasting model, the projected year-on-year growth rate for the June core CPI, which will be released next month, is 4.05%, lower than May’s 4.2%. However, the FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December remains at 42.5%, while the probability of a cut is unchanged at 32.7%, which continues to put pressure on the markets.

Upward pressure on oil prices is another factor contributing to market instability. U.S. President Donald Trump commented on his social media platform, Truth Social, saying, "Iran has taken too long trying to set the stage in their favor. Now they will pay the price," referencing possible military engagement with Iran.

On the 9th, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) started the day at 7,697.76, up 213.35 points from the previous trading day, displayed on the electronic board in the dealing room of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul, showing the status of the domestic stock market. On the same day, the KRW-USD exchange rate began trading at 1,529.4 won, down 5.6 won from the previous trading day. Photo by Kang Jinhyung, June 9, 2026

Profit-taking in the semiconductor sector ahead of the June 12 SpaceX IPO also weighed on the markets. Major stocks such as Micron (-4.70%), AMD (-4.86%), NVIDIA (-3.73%), Broadcom (-5.01%), and SanDisk (-0.96%) all closed lower.

The domestic stock market is expected to open lower today due to both external and internal uncertainties, including news of U.S. airstrikes on Iran and weakness in U.S. semiconductor stocks. Currently, the KOSPI has become so volatile that sidecar circuit breakers have been triggered for four consecutive trading days. Today marks the first simultaneous expiration of futures and options for single-stock leverage positions in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, which could temporarily distort prices. Additionally, increased demand for funds from global institutions ahead of the SpaceX listing may further heighten volatility.

However, the current volatility is not driven by fundamental negative factors. Instead, it is largely the result of short-term technical corrections caused by supply-demand disruptions originating from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the aftereffects of an overheated market.

Han Ji-young, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, stated, "Unless fundamental deterioration emerges—such as profit peak-out or a halt in artificial intelligence (AI) investment due to weak demand—the best alternative is to maintain the current position."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.