"More Foreign Tourists, But Lower Spending: Variables Behind the 22 Million Inbound Tourism Forecast"

KCTI Projects Record-High Inbound Tourism

Taiwan Surges While Southeast Asia Shows Mixed Trends by Country

Per Capita Tourism Revenue Remains Below Pre-Pandemic Levels; Airfare Emerges as Key Variable

The number of foreign tourists visiting Korea is projected to reach 22 million. The inbound tourism market is expected to surpass pre-COVID-19 levels and move toward an all-time high. However, the underlying trends within the overall numbers are uneven. Taiwan has nearly doubled compared to pre-pandemic figures, and Japan's share of trips to Korea has increased, even amid sluggish recovery in its overall outbound travel. In contrast, in the Southeast Asian market, only a few countries are driving the average upward.

On the 19th, when early summer heat was felt, tourists visiting Gyeongbokgung Palace are spending their time. Photo by Yonhap News

According to the "June Outlook for the International Tourism Market," published by the Korea Culture and Tourism Institute on June 10, the number of inbound tourists to Korea in 2026 is forecast to reach 22 million. This represents a 16.2% increase year-on-year and a 25.7% rise compared to 2019. The cumulative number of inbound visitors from January to April reached 6.77 million, up 21.4% from the same period last year. The Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism also announced that the number of inbound foreign tourists in the first quarter surpassed 4.76 million, marking the highest first-quarter figure ever recorded.

Taiwan recorded the highest growth rate among all markets. According to the institute, the number of Taiwanese visitors to Korea in the first quarter reached 543,000, up 37.2% year-on-year and 93.1% compared to 2019. Korea’s share in the Taiwanese outbound market also rose from 7.4% in 2019 to 10.1% in the first quarter of 2026. No longer just a supplementary market after China and Japan, Taiwan has grown into a key driver of Korea’s inbound tourism growth.

The expansion of the Taiwanese market was directly affected by currency exchange rates. The institute analyzed that, using the average for January 2024 versus May 2026, the won–Taiwanese dollar exchange rate increased by 11.5%. This means travel costs to Korea in Taiwanese dollars have decreased. During the same period, the won–US dollar rate rose 12.6%, and the won–euro rate increased 20.5%. The weaker won has boosted the purchasing power of tourists from the US, Europe, and Taiwan within Korea.

The Chinese market is in recovery mode. The number of Chinese visitors to Korea in 2026 is projected at 6.719 million—up 22.6% from the previous year and 11.6% compared to 2019. However, this is only 83.3% of the 8.068 million recorded in 2016. Factors cited as influencing demand for travel to Korea include the implementation of visa-free group tours, recovery of flight routes, and reduced demand for travel to Japan.

The number of foreign visitors to Korea in 2026 is projected to reach 22 million. China represents the largest absolute scale, while the United States showed the highest growth rate compared to 2019. Source: Korea Culture and Tourism Institute

In the Japanese market, the key point is the rising share of trips to Korea, outpacing the overall outbound recovery rate. The institute forecasts the number of Japanese visitors to Korea in 2026 at 4.29 million, up 17.5% year-on-year and 31.2% from 2019. Korea’s share in Japan’s outbound travel market rose from 16.3% in 2019 to 25.5% in the first quarter of 2026. This means that, even as Japan’s overall outbound travel market remains below pre-pandemic levels, the proportion choosing Korea has grown.

The Japanese market needs to be analyzed separately from other markets in terms of exchange rates. While the won weakened against the US dollar, euro, and Taiwanese dollar, the same cannot be said for the yen. The weaker yen increases the cost burden of overseas travel for Japanese people, so the rise in Japanese visitors to Korea is more attributable to increased demand for nearby destinations, airline capacity, consumption of Korean content, and repeat visits, rather than exchange rate effects.

The Southeast Asian market cannot be explained simply by average growth rates. The institute forecasts that the number of visitors to Korea from six Southeast Asian countries—Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines—will reach 2.926 million in 2026, up 13.1% from the previous year. However, in detail, while countries like the Philippines and Singapore are leading the growth, others such as Thailand and Malaysia remain below 2019 levels. Specifically, the number of visitors from Thailand is 35.8% lower and from Malaysia 7.1% lower than in 2019.

K-ETA official website. The Korea Culture and Tourism Institute analyzed that whether K-ETA is applied acts as a variable affecting the recovery speed of the Southeast Asian inbound tourism market.

The K-ETA is cited as a major policy variable explaining the uneven recovery in the Southeast Asian market. The report compared the speed of recovery among Southeast Asian countries based on whether or not K-ETA is applied. The controversy surrounding K-ETA in Thailand in 2024 has continued to affect payment data in 2025 and market forecasts for 2026. According to an analysis of inbound visitor payment data released by Visa Korea in 2025, total payments by visitors from Taiwan and Hong Kong increased by 54% and 50% year-on-year, respectively, while those from Thailand fell by 14%. Visa Korea explained that, after K-ETA was reinstated for Thailand in April 2024, there was a rise in cases of entry denial for some tourists, which reduced demand for travel to Korea.

Korean content is acting as a factor expanding demand for travel to Korea. The report pointed out that, in March 2026, 44.7% of visitors to the Gwanghwamun BTS concert were foreigners. Large-scale events like this concentrate foreign visitors during specific periods. When demand for performances is combined with spending on accommodation, transportation, shopping, and food and beverages, the effect on tourism expenditures is amplified. The consumption structure differs between one-off event-driven demand and ongoing tourism demand.

The increase in the number of inbound visitors does not necessarily translate into higher tourism revenue. Previously, Yanolja Research analyzed that, from January to September 2025, the number of inbound tourists has been increasing rapidly, but per capita tourism revenue has been recovering more slowly. Per capita tourism revenue fell from $1,193.1 in 2019 to $955.5 in 2024, and in 2025, it remained below 2019 levels at $1,010.4. Total tourism revenue from January to September 2025 was $14.23 billion, just 92.2% of the same period in 2019.

Tourists and citizens are walking along Myeongdong Street in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

The outlook for outbound Korean travelers depends on oil price scenarios. In 2026, the number of outbound Koreans is projected to be 29.02 million, a 1.8% decrease year-on-year, but 1.1% higher than in 2019. In the first quarter, the number of outbound Koreans was 8.331 million, up 6.9% year-on-year and 5.9% higher than in 2019. The number of outbound travelers in April also rose 6.3% from the same month last year and 1.8% from April 2019.

The annual decrease reflects a conservative scenario accounting for the burden of high oil prices. The institute noted that, although the price of Dubai crude oil fell from $128.5 per barrel in March to $103.6 in May, jet fuel prices and fuel surcharges could still be reflected in airline ticket prices. If oil prices stabilize earlier, starting from the third quarter, the number of outbound Koreans could rise by an additional 3–4% above the current forecast. The government's projection of a 2.6% growth rate in its 2026 economic growth strategy, reflecting robust semiconductor exports, is also a factor limiting downward pressure on outbound demand.

Oil prices and airfare are variables simultaneously affecting both inbound and outbound travel demand. Increases in jet fuel prices are reflected in fuel surcharges and airfares, and the price of airline tickets affects both inbound and outbound demand.

The institute forecasts 22 million inbound tourists to Korea and 29.02 million outbound Koreans in 2026. By market, the breakdown of inbound visitors is projected as follows: China 6.719 million, Japan 4.29 million, the United States 1.609 million, and six Southeast Asian countries 2.926 million.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.