WTO: Signs of Slowdown in Merchandise Trade That Had Remained Strong Despite Middle East War

There is now an assessment that global merchandise trade, which had remained strong even amid the Middle East war, is beginning to show signs of slowing down.

Containers piled high at Busan Port’s Sinsundae and Gamman Piers. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

The World Trade Organization (WTO) announced on the 5th that its recently compiled Goods Trade Barometer stood at 101.7, down from 102.3 recorded in January.

The Goods Trade Barometer is an index that forecasts the state of trade for the next two to three months. A reading below the baseline of 100 indicates that trade growth is expected to be weak, while a reading above 100 suggests strong growth.

Despite significant concerns stemming from the Middle East war, the latest index exceeded 100, supported by investments in artificial intelligence (AI). By sector, the goods trade index for electronic components, including AI, was 105.5, significantly higher than the overall average. The air freight and container shipping sectors also surpassed the baseline at 102.2 and 102.4, respectively, though both were lower than in January.

In its World Trade Outlook report released in March, the WTO projected that the growth rate of global merchandise trade would reach only 1.9% this year. This represents a significant slowdown compared to last year’s 4.6% growth rate.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.