"AI Over Mars"... Musk's Ambition Behind the SpaceX IPO [Weekend Money]

SpaceX Projected to Reach $474 Billion in Revenue by 2030
AI Segment Alone Expected to Generate $322 Billion, Accounting for 68% of Total
"Figures May Be Unrealistic, but AI-Centric Strategy Is Clear"

SpaceX, the space company led by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, is preparing for an initial public offering (IPO). While words such as Starlink satellite communications, Starship launch vehicles, and Mars colonization plans are all typically linked to space, the core focus revealed during the IPO roadshow was not space, but artificial intelligence (AI). Analysts suggest that SpaceX is seeking to be redefined as an AI infrastructure company, beyond just a satellite network and launch vehicle firm, after going public.

On June 6, KB Securities provided this analysis of SpaceX’s trajectory. According to major foreign media reports, Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter for the SpaceX IPO, verbally told investors that SpaceX’s revenue could grow from $18.7 billion (approximately KRW 28.8167 trillion) last year to $474 billion by 2030. By presenting these figures only verbally, they appear to be avoiding the responsibility that comes with a written report, and by suggesting adjusted EBITDA of up to $352 billion, they are suspected of structuring the numbers to make the company’s $1.77 trillion valuation look relatively inexpensive.

According to the sector-by-sector revenue projections that Goldman Sachs presented verbally, revenue from the AI segment is expected to increase from $3.2 billion last year to $322 billion by 2030. This implies an almost 100-fold increase in just five years.

During the same period, Starlink revenue is projected to rise from $11.4 billion to $144 billion, representing about a 13-fold increase. Revenue from the space and launch vehicle segment is forecast to grow from $4 billion to $8.3 billion, only doubling. By 2030, AI is expected to account for 68% of revenue, Starlink for 30%, and the space and launch vehicle segment for just 2%.

Under this structure, SpaceX, contrary to its name, would not primarily be a satellite network or launch vehicle company, but rather an “AI infrastructure company leveraging space.” Il Hyuk Kim, a researcher at KB Securities, noted, “While these figures are not realistic, the direction is clear—SpaceX intends to focus on AI growth, which will heighten expectations for the AI market after the IPO.”

However, it is difficult to take these projections at face value. For the AI segment’s revenue to grow from $3.2 billion to $322 billion, it would require an average annual growth rate of approximately 150%. Last year, the AI segment recorded an operating loss of $6.35 billion. Although this year, SpaceX signed usage contracts with Anthropic and Colossus, which is expected to generate $15 billion in annual rental revenue and lead to a rebound in performance, accelerating future growth would require massive additional infrastructure investment.

Fortunately, the growth rate projections for Starlink and Starship are within a reasonable range. Starlink is expected to grow by about 66% annually, while Starship is projected to grow by about 16% annually.

Ultimately, the SpaceX IPO carries significance beyond simply listing a space company. It is an event in which the market will evaluate Musk’s vision of generating cash through Starlink, reducing space logistics costs with Starship, and building AI computing infrastructure on top of these. Researcher Kim commented, “While it is hard to take the numbers presented by Goldman Sachs at face value, they do reveal the direction Musk intends to take SpaceX. Following the IPO, the company is expected to focus on growing its AI segment and to further raise expectations for the expansion of the AI market.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.