Choi Changryul: "Oh Sehoon Has Become the Strongest Opposition Candidate" [Current Affairs Show]

Myungho Park: "Seoul Election Influenced by Real Estate and Special Prosecutor for Dismissed Indictments"

Changryul Choi: "It’s Only a Matter of Time Before Jang Donghyuk Steps Down"

Myungho Park: "Nomination Battle Begins: New Lee Jaemyung

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily 'So Jongsup's Current Affairs Show' (Monday–Friday, 4–5 PM)

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongsup ■ Director: PD Ma Yena

■ Guests: Professor Myungho Park of Dongguk University, Special Professor Changryul Choi of Yongin University (June 4)

※ When quoting content from this article, please be sure to mention 'So Jongsup's Current Affairs Show'.

So Jongsup: Hello, everyone. Welcome to So Jongsup's Current Affairs Show. The local elections have concluded. Today, we will hear overall evaluations from Professor Myungho Park of Dongguk University and Professor Changryul Choi of Yongin University.

Changryul Choi: In my forecast, I predicted a 14-to-2 or 13-to-3 result. But the actual result was 12-to-4. First of all, the People Power Party must not misread this. If they interpret the 12-to-4 outcome as the public acknowledging what they've been doing—like 'Yoon Again'—that would be a serious misreading. The Democratic Party also needs serious introspection. Regardless of the 12-to-4 score, a significant portion of the public rejected the Democratic Party. This should be accepted as a public check on the Democratic Party's administration. When I look at elections, especially general elections, I often feel that the public makes extraordinarily nuanced choices. To those in the People Power Party's hardline leadership and those who seemed to follow them, this result is an order to step down.

The Local Election Results: A Check on the Democratic Party, an Order for Jang Donghyuk's Leadership to Step Down

Myungho Park: I believe this is an example of the public's sense of balance being expressed as collective intelligence. What stood out to me was that, with our dual-party governance and candidate nomination systems, both the structure of governance and political leadership are centered on parties. This result seems to have revealed both the limits and possibilities of dual-party governance and leadership, giving both parties a message about their future.

Myungho Park: I think the Democratic Party received a warning sign from North Jeolla Province. Although candidate Kim Gwan-yong lost, he performed well until the end. For the People Power Party, Daegu sent a clear message. I believe there is a definite call for the reorganization of the conservative camp. Han Donghoon's victory in Buk-gap, Busan, confirmed the possibility that he could be an alternative pillar in the process of conservative reorganization. In this sense, the starting pistol for both parties has sounded, with both now on the starting line for the 2028 general elections and the 2030 presidential election.

Professor Myungho Park of Dongguk University (center) and Professor Changryul Choi of Yongin University (right) appeared on Jongseop So's current affairs show at The Asia Business Daily headquarters in Chungmuro, Jung-gu, Seoul on the 4th, having a discussion with specialist Jongseop So about the results of the June 3 local elections. Photo by Younghan Heo

So Jongsup: In the Seoul metropolitan area, real estate, and in other regions, resistance to the so-called special prosecution for case manipulation—such as the prosecution for withdrawal of charges—also seem to have influenced the election results. Would you agree?

Myungho Park: Absolutely. Especially in the Seoul mayoral race, these factors played a decisive role. The dramatic turnaround by Oh Se-hoon at the last minute undermined the Democratic Party's claim of a landslide 12-to-4 victory, changing the meaning of this local election. The late-stage conservative consolidation in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, as well as Oh Se-hoon's dramatic comeback in Seoul, were fundamentally influenced by the special prosecution for withdrawal of charges and case manipulation. More fundamentally, I think Oh Se-hoon is a politically lucky person. He also showed a sense of stability in crisis management and quick-wittedness, which made a difference—especially compared to candidate Jeong Wono.

So Jongsup: How would you analyze the reasons behind Oh Se-hoon's victory?

Oh Se-hoon's Move to Distance Himself from Jang Donghyuk Was a Masterstroke

Changryul Choi: Above all, Oh Se-hoon’s clear distancing from the Jang Donghyuk leadership was significant, and he established the right frame in the overall structure, which was key to his victory. Also, Jeong Wono was relatively weak. Although he served three terms as Seongdong District mayor, he was new to national politics and lacked strong vested interests, yet he came across as if he had them. I think he put too much faith in the “liquidation of rebellion” frame, and his campaign staff also seemed to rely on it excessively. Even so, he should have campaigned as a political newcomer.

Who is Oh Se-hoon? A four-term mayor of Seoul, practically a career mayor. He is highly experienced and has a very favorable image—rational, centrist, and without significant enemies, even among progressives. Jeong Wono only recently became well-known, so he should have been more proactive and aggressive, but instead, he appeared passive and defensive.

As a result, Oh Se-hoon had an advantage in terms of personal qualities. Of course, he was also pushed onto the defensive at times due to safety issues, but he managed to overcome them. Meanwhile, Jeong Wono's past assault issue lingered in voters’ minds, and overall, his crisis management skills were lacking. He had a good campaign frame but failed to capitalize on it, whereas Oh Se-hoon leveraged his personal capabilities to more than make up for any shortcomings. He clearly distinguished himself from his party and asserted his political identity, making him deserving of recognition as a politician.

Professor Changryul Choi of Yongin University appeared on So Jongsup's Current Affairs Show on the 4th to discuss the results of the June 3 local elections. Photo by Huh Younghan

Myungho Park: For the People Power Party, Daegu’s warning was paired with new possibilities in Seoul and Busan. The results from Daegu indicate that conservatives can’t continue as they are and must change. The question now is: around whom will that change happen? The results suggest that Oh Se-hoon and Han Donghoon have opened up new possibilities in Seoul and Busan, respectively. Looking ahead to the 2028 general election, Oh Se-hoon will be a key contender to represent conservatives in the Seoul metropolitan area. With the title of Seoul election winner, he will likely have a greater say in party management and exercise more influence going forward.

Oh Se-hoon Writes a Political Drama, Becomes the Core of Conservatism

Changryul Choi: The most memorable candidate in this local election is Oh Se-hoon, followed by Han Donghoon. What do these two represent? They are conservatives, yet have severed ties with the current People Power Party leadership. For Jang Donghyuk, these two are the most uncomfortable figures. Oh Se-hoon is not just a voice, but the core of the conservative camp. His dramatic comeback after trailing behind created a compelling narrative. While he must focus on governing Seoul, he also needs to reinvent himself as a national politician.

I also expect Han Donghoon to be reinstated into the party, if not immediately. General elections are their own battleground. In Busan and the PK region, conservatives are rallying around Han Donghoon, and the same applies to the metropolitan area. Han Donghoon and Oh Se-hoon will become the two pillars of the conservative camp, marching toward the presidential election.

So Jongsup: As the conservative camp reorganizes, Oh Se-hoon, Han Donghoon, and even Party Chairman Lee Junseok will compete and cooperate. What are your outlooks leading up to the general election?

Professor Myungho Park of Dongguk University appeared on So Jongseop's current affairs show on the 4th to discuss the results of the June 3 local elections. Photo by Younghan Hur

Myungho Park: Ultimately, the key question will be whether one prioritizes personal or factional interests, or the interests of both the conservative camp and the broader Korean community. How these figures appear to the public will be decisive. Both Lee Junseok and Oh Se-hoon have each spent over 15 years in politics. Among the three, Han Donghoon's political emergence is the most dramatic. He seems to have strong focus and drive toward his goals, which is reminiscent of President Lee Jae-myung in some ways.

His ability to learn quickly has also been demonstrated. He has thoroughly reinvented himself—whether sitting on the ground or showing off moves akin to pole dancing, it was a “rediscovery” of Han Donghoon and showcased remarkable potential. In a sense, he has completely transformed himself, which deserves recognition. However, it remains to be seen whether he can keep this up in the future. There are still questions about whether he understands and has experience with politics, leadership, governance, and party affairs to the same degree as Lee Junseok or Oh Se-hoon. I hope he does not become impatient.

The Strongest Opposition Candidate Is Oh Se-hoon, Han Donghoon Needs Something Extra

Changryul Choi: I think Party Chairman Lee Junseok has shown some limitations, and he hasn't demonstrated much presence. His appealing qualities seem to be waning. That said, he still has ample opportunity to recover—he is young, bright, and capable. As I mentioned earlier, Oh Se-hoon has remarkable strengths. Winning the Seoul mayoralty for a fifth time is no small feat and makes him, in my view, the strongest opposition candidate.

Han Donghoon, as a candidate, must overcome the public perception of his limitations as a former prosecutor. He needs to completely transform his image and appear less harsh. People often say, “Han Donghoon never tries to lose.” Of course, no one likes to lose, but he’s smart, articulate, and precise with his arguments and attacks. That works up to a point, but to become president, he needs something extra—something that has not yet been seen, but I believe he has considerable potential. He has gained a lot of popularity and even a fandom, which is a tremendous political asset.

Han Donghoon and Oh Se-hoon should form a relationship of competitive cooperation as they rebuild the conservative camp. For conservatism to shed its old reactionary image and adopt a more progressive voice, as Park Geun-hye did in 2012 by championing economic democratization and winning both the general and presidential elections, they must show that kind of inclusiveness. We will have to wait and see.

On the 4th, Oh Se-hoon, the mayor of Seoul who won the June 3 local election, received a bouquet from employees at Seoul City Hall. Photo by Yoon Dongju

Oh Se-hoon, Lee Junseok, Han Donghoon: The Key Is to Clearly Establish Their Own Identity

Myungho Park: The three of them will continue to compete and cooperate, but the key will be how clearly they can establish their own distinct identities. If Lee Junseok is focused on the future, he might appear the most relatable or “normal” among them. As for Oh Se-hoon and Han Donghoon, they have emerged as political newcomers, but there is a fundamental limitation—would they have risen so quickly without former President Yoon Suk-yeol? Both have been his closest associates, greatest beneficiaries, and yet the first to turn away from him. This is both their potential and their limitation. Still, they have clearly demonstrated their potential. As former lawmaker Yoo In-tae put it, “I didn't expect them to do this well.”

So Jongsup: Looking at the election results, aren’t there several factors that will inevitably amplify calls for Jang Donghyuk to take responsibility?

Changryul Choi: I don’t think Jang Donghyuk will step down immediately. Even if he doesn’t, if four of the elected party executives on the leadership committee resign, the leadership will collapse—but there’s no one likely to do so at the moment. However, significant internal discord will arise within the People Power Party, and the party will be pulled in different directions. Can Jang Donghyuk really avoid responsibility? I think there are limits. In this situation where conservative reorganization is being discussed, it’s become clear that he is not the right person for the job. How could he endure under these circumstances? I believe his time is limited—it’s only a matter of time.

Jang Donghyuk Stepping Down Is a Matter of Time, and a New Conservative Party Is Possible

Myungho Park: With nearly 80 constituency lawmakers, a significant number come from the Yeongnam region. Looking ahead to the next general election, lawmakers will judge which leadership style will best serve their own nominations and election prospects. As the interests of Yeongnam and the Seoul metropolitan area diverge, the question is whether to harmonize or split. In this respect, I believe the creation of a new conservative party is entirely possible, particularly as a strategy for the metropolitan area. There will be a need to clarify where metropolitan and Yeongnam conservatives can cooperate and where they cannot, and opinions will differ depending on each individual's position and environment. As we move toward the general election, I expect both the ruling and opposition parties to experience repeated clashes between centripetal and centrifugal forces.

Changryul Choi: Forming a new party won’t be easy, but I think it is necessary. Lawmakers with constituencies in Yeongnam and those in the Seoul metropolitan area have different interests. So while it may be difficult in the short term, in the medium term—considering the next general election or the one after—it's a realistic possibility.

※ Click the video to watch the full discussion.

So Jongsup: Even in the Democratic Party, although Chairman Jeong Cheongrae achieved an overall victory, it’s not a situation where he can really celebrate, is it?

Myungho Park: Certainly not. The warning from North Jeolla Province and the mismanagement in Pyeongtaek have left him with a kind of indirect responsibility. The dramatic upset loss in Seoul at the end added to the wounds, even as he declares victory. For instance, lawmaker Song Young-gil has already said they lost an election they should not have lost, which is a way of emphasizing responsibility for the current leadership. The party has suffered significant internal damage. Now, the so-called new Lee Jae-myung faction is set to compete with the pro-Moon, pro-Noh, and pro-Cheong factions—the so-called “old Democratic Party.” The competition over who will control nominations for the 2028 general election has begun, and ultimately, whoever seizes the nomination rights will be able to raise the flag toward the 2030 presidential election.

Jeong Cheongrae Now Has Something to Say After Winning North Jeolla, and May Be Able to Extend His Term

Changryul Choi: Chairman Jeong Cheongrae will not step down. He won North Jeolla Province after all, so now he has a case to make. You can't really say the party lost this election. If he runs in the party convention, I think he currently has a real chance.

So Jongsup: Is there a possibility that Chairman Jeong will seek a second term?

Changryul Choi: I expect Kim Minseok and Song Young-gil to form an alliance. The group led by President Lee Jae-myung and the pro-Moon and pro-Noh factions will compete for power, but it seems that many party members support Chairman Jeong. The support is higher than expected, so I believe Chairman Jeong will definitely run for a second term and has a real chance of winning.

So Jongsup: Thank you both.

Myungho Park, Changryul Choi: Thank you.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.