'Development Issues' Decided Seoul Mayoral Race... Wonhyoro and Itaewon Turned Even Redder

Democratic Support in Yongsan and Itaewon Drops 5 Percentage Points from Last Year
Preferences Split on Redevelopment Approach in Hannam 1 District
Democratic Party Struggles in Jamwon and Banpo in Seocho-gu
Tax Issues Take Center Stage, Including Reduction of Long-Term Ownership Deductions

In the closely contested Seoul mayoral election held on June 3, which was part of the nationwide local elections, the so-called Han River Belt drew significant attention. This is because the districts that played a key role in the victory of Mayor Oh Se-hoon were concentrated around the Han River, including the three Gangnam districts. These areas have been particularly sensitive to real estate issues. However, a closer look reveals that support levels varied significantly between neighborhoods depending on local real estate concerns.

According to the ballot count released by the National Election Commission on June 5 (with 99.9% of ballots counted), People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon received 49.2% of the vote, while Democratic Party candidate Jung Won-oh garnered 48.1%. Mayor Oh led in 10 districts, including the three Gangnam districts, Yongsan-gu, Gangdong-gu, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Dongjak-gu, Yangcheon-gu, Jung-gu, and Gwangjin-gu. This list matches nine of the top 11 districts ranked by average transaction price of apartment buildings last year, except for Seongdong-gu and Mapo-gu.

Candidate Jung lost a considerable number of votes in Yongsan-gu, Seocho-gu, and Gangnam-gu. A closer analysis of voting patterns in these three districts reveals shifts in public sentiment regarding real estate. Jung received 40.2% of the vote in Yongsan-gu, which is a 0.9 percentage point decrease from the Democratic Party's share in the presidential election a year ago. Notably, the largest declines within Yongsan-gu occurred in Wonhyoro 1-dong (Democratic Party: 42.6% in the presidential election → 40.9% in the local election; same below), Ichon 2-dong (37.3% → 34.8%), and Itaewon 1-dong (37.5% → 32.6%).

Among the top 10 districts in Seoul ranked by transaction price per unit area of apartment buildings, candidate Jung Won-oh received more votes in Seongdong-gu and Mapo-gu, while candidate Oh Se-hoon secured more votes in the remaining eight districts.

The issues surrounding development projects in Wonhyoro 1-dong and Ichon 2-dong are considered to have had a direct or indirect impact. These two areas are divided east and west by the Yongsan International Business District. The Yongsan International Business District is being developed jointly by KORAIL and Seoul Housing & Communities Corporation (SH), aiming to transform the railway vehicle maintenance depot into a mixed-use district with residential, office, and commercial facilities. However, the project has been stalled for over a decade due to various internal and external controversies, only resuming formal procedures starting last year.

In January this year, the government announced a plan to increase the housing supply in the Yongsan International Business District to 10,000 units, which led to conflict with the Seoul Metropolitan Government. The city had previously proposed a total of around 6,000 units. Seoul Metropolitan Government clearly opposed the government’s plan, citing concerns that increasing the number of units beyond this would lead to shortages in essential infrastructure such as schools. Local residents have also voiced opposition to increasing the number of housing units without first expanding necessary infrastructure. As a result, more residents appear to have supported Mayor Oh’s stance on Yongsan’s development.

Seoul Yongsan International Business District site view. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Itaewon 1-dong encompasses the Hannam 1 district, which was previously designated as a redevelopment zone but had its designation lifted. While neighboring Hannam districts 2 through 5 are regarded as prime redevelopment sites in Seoul and are actively pushing forward with their projects, Hannam 1 district has seen slower progress, with its redevelopment designation revoked in 2017. After being selected last year as a candidate site for Seoul’s Fast-Track Integrated Planning, there has been a positive response among local residents. Both candidate Jung and Mayor-elect Oh have pledged to revitalize redevelopment projects, but the public appears to have favored Mayor Oh’s market-led “Shintong Plan,” which he devised during his previous term as mayor.

In Seocho-gu, the Democratic Party’s vote share was 33.2%, a 0.7 percentage point decrease from last year’s presidential election. The declines were particularly pronounced in Jamwon-dong (26.8% → 24.7%) and Banpo 2-dong (22.2% → 20.6%). This area is home to some of the most expensive apartment complexes in Gangnam, including Raemian One Bailey (where the price per 3.3 square meters is close to 200 million won), Acro River Park, and Maple Xi. There are also many older apartments near Jamwon Station and along the Han River that are undergoing or eligible for reconstruction. Factors such as the government’s moves to increase property taxes on high-priced apartments, changes to the long-term ownership tax deduction, and pressure on multi-homeowners to sell their properties appear to have contributed to negative sentiment towards current government policies.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.