SpaceX IPO Launches...Goldman: "AI Revenue to Grow 100-Fold by 2030"

$1.77 Trillion Valuation Proposed
Plans to Raise $7.5 Billion to $8.5 Billion
Some on Wall Street Call Valuation "Overstated"

As SpaceX began its initial public offering (IPO) roadshow on June 4 (local time), lead underwriter Goldman Sachs projected that the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) business revenue would grow nearly 100-fold by 2030. Goldman Sachs also indicated that for SpaceX to realize its proposed valuation of $1.77 trillion, its AI business would need to experience explosive growth.

According to the Financial Times (FT) of the UK, Goldman Sachs presented materials to potential investors on the same day, projecting that SpaceX’s AI division revenue would increase from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $322 billion in 2030. This is seen as the key assumption underlying SpaceX’s valuation of $1.77 trillion (approximately 2,735 trillion won) as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for its IPO. This figure even exceeds the upper end of earlier market expectations at $1.75 trillion. Firms such as Morningstar have pointed out that this valuation is inflated, suggesting a fair value closer to $780 billion—about half that figure.

Goldman Sachs forecasted that Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet business, would generate $144 billion in revenue by 2030. However, this figure would still be less than half the projected revenue from the AI division. Rocket business revenue is expected to increase from $4.1 billion last year to $8.3 billion in 2030. Goldman Sachs also projected that SpaceX’s EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) would rise from $6.6 billion in 2025 to $352 billion in 2030. Free cash flow (FCF), which recorded a deficit of $13.8 billion last year, is expected to turn positive and reach $72 billion by 2031. However, FT noted that for these projections to materialize, xAI’s AI model ‘Grok’ would need to outperform OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic in key areas such as coding, cybersecurity, AI agents, and chatbots.

On the same day, Elon Musk released a 17-minute roadshow video targeting individual investors worldwide. Chief Financial Officer Brett Johnson emphasized in the video that “the largest share of capital expenditures over the past two years has gone to AI investments,” presenting AI as the core driver of growth. He set targets of a 70% gross profit margin and a 45% net profit margin, though he did not specify when these goals would be achieved. He also unveiled future business initiatives, including space data centers, ultra-high-speed Earth-bound transportation, and asteroid mining.

Through this IPO, SpaceX plans to raise between $7.5 billion and $8.6 billion. Up to 30% of the public offering is reportedly allocated to individual investors. Korean individual investors have been excluded from the general public subscription. However, it has been reported that individual participation is possible in regions such as Japan, leading to competition for the public offering.

After the listing, whether SpaceX will be included in major stock indexes remains a variable. Nasdaq has eased its rules to allow SpaceX to be included in the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days after listing. In contrast, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Dow Jones have maintained their requirements that newly listed companies must wait 12 months before inclusion. As a result, SpaceX is unlikely to join the S&P 500 until at least one year after listing. Bloomberg noted that this means SpaceX will not be eligible for index inclusion for at least a year after its IPO.

Wall Street is also moving busily to ensure the success of this IPO. Jamie Dimon, Chairman of JPMorgan—often referred to as the “Emperor of Wall Street”—is reportedly planning to personally brief the bank’s ultra-high-net-worth clients on the investment opportunity. The underwriter lineup comprises 23 companies, with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley selected last month as the lead underwriters for the SpaceX listing. JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup are also among the participating firms.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.