[Politics Insight] Lessons from the June 3 Local Elections... 'Warning on Ruling Party's Real Estate Policy, Pressure on Opposition to Shift Course'

Ruling Party's Victory Falls Short of Expectations
Opposition Faces Challenge of Overcoming Internal Divisions

The Democratic Party of Korea assessed its overall performance as a victory after winning 12 out of 16 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial elections nationwide. However, the party suffered a significant setback, most notably losing the highly watched Seoul mayoral race. The People Power Party avoided a complete defeat and gained an opportunity for a counterattack, but the overall election results were the opposite of its sweeping victory in 2022. The voters' decision left both the ruling and opposition parties with neither a complete win nor a total loss, but rather new concerns and challenges.

On June 5, the atmosphere within the Democratic Party was far from upbeat. Despite favorable political conditions, including a strong public sentiment for settling past insurrections, the first-year-in-office election of a highly popular president, and internal strife within the opposition, the party had expected a landslide victory. The disappointing election outcome dampened expectations. Park Soo-hyun, the governor-elect of South Chungcheong Province, wrote on social media that “We lost the basic-level local elections. Everyone expected easy victories, but the results were the exact opposite,” adding, “The Democratic Party leadership must immediately form a 'June 3 Local Election Review and White Paper Committee.'”

A Democratic Party official, commenting on the election results, said, “Given that we were expecting a sweeping victory, this election can only be seen as a blow, and we were complacent in our management.” The official added, “With the People Power Party in disarray, talk of dropping prosecutions gave rise to concerns about the current government’s unilateral rule, which in turn provided a pretext for the conservative base to rally.”

On June 3rd, the day of the local elections, ballot boxes transported to the counting center set up at the gymnasium of Seoul National University in Gwanak-gu, Seoul, are placed there. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

In particular, the defeat in the Seoul mayoral race and the results of basic-level local elections in the greater Seoul area set off alarm bells. Even in Gyeonggi Province, where a Democratic Party landslide was taken for granted, the party struggled against the People Power Party. The failure to retake the mayoralty of Seongnam, President Lee’s political stronghold, was especially notable. Choi Byeongcheon, head of the New Growth Economic Research Institute, pointed out, “Recently, the sharp rise in monthly and yearly rental prices in Seoul and elsewhere is linked with regulations on multiple-home owners. The election became more difficult as concerns about property tax hikes, including the comprehensive real estate holding tax, overlapped with surging rents.” Choi further analyzed, “To some extent, these factors also influenced the voting patterns of those in their 20s and 30s.”

There were also criticisms of the approach that labeled Seoul citizens’ sensitive reactions to property taxes as a shift toward conservatism. A local election campaign official commented, “Is it really valid to call citizens’ assertions of their property rights a shift to conservatism?”

The People Power Party retained the crucial Seoul mayoral seat and secured 95 basic-level local government heads. This is a better result than the opposition’s performance in the 7th (53 seats) and 8th (63 seats) elections. The party also increased its National Assembly seats by four through re- and by-elections. However, these results cannot be attributed to the hardline stance of the party leadership. For instance, in Seoul, Mayor Oh Se-hoon distanced himself from party leader Jang Dong-hyuk and conducted an independent campaign, citing the leadership’s approach as a disadvantage for appealing to moderate voters. Prior to the election, Mayor Oh had urged the party to adopt a “Jeol Yoon” (absolute Yoon) stance.

A People Power Party lawmaker remarked, “What does it mean that Jang supported Busan and South Chungcheong and lost, but Seoul, where he did not intervene, was won?” Yoo Eui-dong, a newly elected National Assembly member, said on MBC’s ‘Kim Jongbae’s Focus’ that “we never asked for Jang’s support,” adding, “The candidates achieved their results in difficult circumstances.” Overcoming internal party divisions remains a challenge as well. Senior official Kim Jae-won admitted, “We are painfully reflecting on the fact that we could not resolve internal conflicts.” With both Mayor Oh and independent National Assembly member Han Dong-hoon surviving, internal strife could intensify. Party leader Jang Dong-hyuk stated, “I will not turn away from the heavy responsibility at hand,” drawing a line against calls for his resignation.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.