Real Estate Ultimately Swayed Seoul Voters... The 'Lee Jaemyung Effect' in Chungcheong and Gangwon, Signs of Change in Yeongnam

Three Key Factors That Shaped the June 3rd Local Elections

Chungcheong and Gangwon: Stability for the Administration, Seoul: Real Estate Sentiment

PK: Confirmation of Changing Voter Trends in Yeongnam

The June 3rd local elections concluded with the Democratic Party of Korea winning in 12 out of 16 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial races across the country, but the reasons behind voters’ choices varied by region. In political circles, the main keywords seen as decisive in this election are: the “Lee Jaemyung effect,” public sentiment on real estate, and changes in the Yeongnam region.

On June 3rd, the day of the local elections, vote counters are sorting ballots at the counting center set up in the gymnasium of Seoul National University in Gwanak-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

"Support for the New Administration"... The 'Lee Jaemyung Effect' in Swing Regions

The most notable aspect of this election was the strong performance of the Democratic Party in swing regions such as Chungcheong and Gangwon. The Chungcheong region has consistently played the role of a “casting vote” in past elections. Because the region is less tied to a particular party, evaluations and expectations regarding the presidential administration are reflected sensitively in voter sentiment.

Political analysts believe that the timing of the election—being the first nationwide election since the launch of the Lee Jaemyung administration—had a significant impact. It is analyzed that high approval ratings for President Lee Jaemyung and a public desire to support the new government’s management of state affairs were reflected in the vote. In Gangwon, Woo Sangho, who previously served as the first chief presidential secretary for political affairs under the Lee Jaemyung administration, achieved victory. In South Chungcheong, Park Soo-hyun, who campaigned on working in step with the Lee Jaemyung government, also won.

The leadership of the People Power Party, led by Jang Donghyuk, had anticipated a close contest in the Chungcheong region, but the party lost all metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial races in Chungbuk, Chungnam, Daejeon, and Sejong to the Democratic Party. As a result, Chungcheong and Gangwon are once again being regarded as barometers of public sentiment toward the new administration.

Real Estate Ultimately Swayed Seoul Voters

In Seoul, real estate issues were cited as one of the key factors that determined the election outcome. In particular, this election coincided with the intensification of discussions on real estate tax reform—extending beyond reconstruction and redevelopment issues to include property holding taxes, capital gains taxes, and long-term ownership deductions—drawing strong voter attention.

President Lee has repeatedly mentioned the possibility of reducing long-term ownership deductions, strengthening property holding taxes for owners of multiple homes, and reconsidering tax benefits for registered rental businesses. Even immediately before the election, he stated that "we must escape from being a republic of real estate speculation," fueling expectations that comprehensive real estate tax reform would move forward.

This atmosphere is believed to have influenced the Seoul mayoral race as well. Candidate Oh Se-hoon recorded relatively high vote shares in districts highly sensitive to real estate issues, such as the three Gangnam districts (Gangnam 65%, Seocho 64%, Songpa 51%), as well as Yongsan (57%) and Yangcheon (49%).

Political circles believe that, as the discussion on real estate tax reform intensified, not only housing prices but also issues of taxation and property rights affected voter sentiment in Seoul. A political insider commented, "Real estate remains the most powerful variable in Seoul elections," and added, "The outcome was shaped by a complex mix of redevelopment, housing prices, taxes, and property rights issues."

Seoul Mayor-elect Oh Se-hoon announcing real estate policy promises. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Signs of Change in Yeongnam Confirmed in PK

Another prominent feature of this election was the shift observed in the Yeongnam region. The Democratic Party won the mayoral races in Busan and Ulsan, and even the Daegu mayoral race, which the People Power Party would have easily won in the past, remained neck-and-neck until the very end. In Busan, the Democratic Party performed well in the local races, capturing seven out of sixteen district and county leadership positions in the PK (Busan-Gyeongnam) area.

Political observers attribute this to the ongoing turmoil within the conservative camp following the martial law crisis, as well as internal conflicts within the People Power Party, both of which influenced voter sentiment in PK. In this election cycle, the People Power Party faced considerable internal strife due to nomination disputes, independent candidacies, and competition among conservative candidates. A People Power Party lawmaker from Busan said, "We faced a dual burden: competing with the Democratic Party while also having to overcome the image of internal division," and added, "The election turned out to be much more difficult than expected."

Within and outside political circles, the consensus is that PK can no longer be considered an unassailable conservative stronghold. A political source in Busan stated, "In the past, PK tended to follow a similar pattern as TK, but recently, it has increasingly taken on the characteristics of a swing region, much like the Seoul metropolitan area." In contrast, the sentiment to check the Democratic Party remained strong in TK (Daegu-Gyeongbuk), according to analysts.

Busan Station panoramic view. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.