Lee Jaemyung Effect, Real Estate, and Changing Yeongnam: Three Key Factors That Shaped the June 3 Local Elections

Stability for the Administration in Chungcheong and Gangwon,
Real Estate Sentiment in Seoul

Changing Voter Sentiment in Yeongnam Confirmed in PK

The June 3 local elections concluded with the Democratic Party of Korea winning in 12 out of 16 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial races nationwide. However, the reasons behind voter sentiment varied by region. Political circles cite the following as the key factors that determined the outcome of this election: the 'Lee Jaemyung Effect', real estate sentiment, and changing dynamics in Yeongnam.

On June 3rd, the day of the local elections, vote counters are sorting ballots at the counting center set up in the gymnasium of Seoul National University in Gwanak-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

"Strengthening the New Administration"... The 'Lee Jaemyung Effect' in Swing Regions

The most notable aspect of this election was the strong performance of the Democratic Party in 'swing voter' regions such as Chungcheong and Gangwon. The Chungcheong region has historically played the role of a 'casting vote' in past elections. As voters in this area have relatively weak fixed support for any particular party, evaluations and expectations of the administration tend to influence voter sentiment sensitively.

Many in political circles believe that the timing of this election, held immediately after the launch of the Lee Jaemyung administration, played a significant role. High approval ratings for President Lee Jaemyung, as well as public support for giving the new administration a mandate, were reflected in the voting patterns. In Gangwon, Woo Sangho, who previously served as the first Chief Presidential Secretary for Political Affairs under the Lee Jaemyung administration, emerged victorious. In South Chungcheong, Park Soo-hyun, who ran on the platform of 'Chungnam in Step with the Lee Jaemyung Administration,' also secured a win.

The leadership of the People Power Party, led by Jang Donghyuk, anticipated close contests in the Chungcheong region. However, they were defeated by the Democratic Party in all metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial races in North Chungcheong, South Chungcheong, Daejeon, and Sejong. This has led to the assessment that Chungcheong and Gangwon once again served as barometers of public opinion regarding the new administration.

In Seoul, It Was Ultimately 'Real Estate' That Swayed Voters

In Seoul, the real estate issue was cited as one of the key variables that determined the election outcome. In particular, this election coincided with the full-fledged discussion of real estate tax reforms, including property ownership tax, capital gains tax, and the long-term holding special deduction. This drew significant attention from voters, surpassing even the usual focus on reconstruction and redevelopment issues.

President Lee had repeatedly mentioned the possibility of reducing the long-term holding special deduction, strengthening property ownership taxes on multiple homeowners, and reconsidering tax benefits for registered rental business operators. Even just before the election, he stated, "We must escape from being a republic of real estate speculation," fueling expectations that real estate tax reform would soon be underway.

This sentiment is believed to have influenced the Seoul mayoral race as well. Candidate Oh Se-hoon recorded relatively high approval rates in areas highly sensitive to real estate issues, such as the three Gangnam districts (Gangnam 65%, Seocho 64%, Songpa 51%), Yongsan (57%), and Yangcheon (49%).

Political circles believe that, as discussions on real estate tax reform gained momentum, not only housing prices but also issues related to taxation and property rights influenced voter sentiment in Seoul. A political source commented, "Real estate remains the most powerful variable in Seoul elections," adding, "Not only redevelopment and housing prices, but also taxes and property rights played a complex role."

Seoul Mayor-elect Oh Se-hoon announcing real estate policy promises. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Change in Yeongnam Confirmed in PK

Another notable feature of this election was the change observed in the Yeongnam region. The Democratic Party captured the mayoral races in Busan and Ulsan, and even in Daegu—where the People Power Party would have previously won with relative ease—the race was neck and neck until the very end. In Busan, the Democratic Party won 7 out of 16 district and county chief positions, demonstrating strong performance in local elections across the PK (Busan-Gyeongnam) area.

Political circles believe that confusion within the conservative bloc following the martial law crisis, as well as internal strife within the People Power Party, affected voter sentiment in PK. During the election, the People Power Party suffered from nomination disputes, independent candidacies, and fierce competition among conservative candidates, leading to considerable internal discord. A People Power Party lawmaker from Busan commented, "We faced the dual challenge of competing against the Democratic Party while also overcoming the image of internal division," adding, "It was a much tougher election than expected."

Both within and outside political circles, there is a growing consensus that PK can no longer be considered an absolute conservative stronghold. A political source in Busan remarked, "In the past, PK followed a similar pattern to TK, but recently it has begun to take on more characteristics of a swing voter region, much like the Seoul metropolitan area." In contrast, it is analyzed that in TK, anti-Democratic Party sentiment remained strong.

Busan Station panoramic view. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.