Reverse 2022...Ruling Party's Bittersweet Third Consecutive Win, Opposition Loses the Heartland

Unable to Celebrate: Ruling Party Faces Defeat in Seoul

People Power Party Not Satisfied with Winning Only Strongholds

Ruling Party’s Challenges: Real Estate and Youth, Opposition’s Task: Winning Over Moderates

Next Leadership Structure in Focus...Oh Sehoon and Han Donghoon Rise in Opposition

On the first anniversary of the inauguration of the Lee Jaemyung administration, the ruling Democratic Party of Korea secured a victory in the 9th nationwide local elections by winning the governorships of 12 metropolitan and provincial governments. The opposition People Power Party managed to win in only 4 regions, resulting in a defeat. However, the ruling party had to settle for a partial victory after losing Seoul, the core battleground.

According to the National Election Commission as of 9:00 a.m. on June 4, the ruling party won in 12 regions: Jeonnam, Gwangju, Busan, Incheon, Daejeon, Ulsan, Sejong, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungnam, Chungbuk, Jeonbuk, and Jeju. The opposition secured victories in Seoul, Daegu, Gyeongbuk, and Gyeongnam. As a result, the ruling party achieved a third consecutive nationwide election victory, but the shock of losing Seoul has created a complicated mood within the party.

Reverse 2022...A Bittersweet Win for the Ruling Party

The results of the metropolitan mayoral and provincial governor elections are similar to those of the 8th local elections, which were held 20 days after the inauguration of the Yoon Sukyeol administration. At that time, the People Power Party won in 12 regions and the Democratic Party in 5, but now the situation has been reversed. Both parties also experienced dramatic turnarounds in Gyeonggi Province (in the 8th election) and Seoul (in the 9th), both of which carry significant political symbolism.

However, even though the Democratic Party won a landslide victory on the surface, it finds itself unable to celebrate. This is due to the political fallout from the defeat of Democratic Party candidate Jeong Won-oh, who was considered President Lee Jaemyung’s “Myung-Pick” (Myung + pick), during the honeymoon phase when President Lee’s job approval rating was at 60%. In Seoul, a barometer of moderate public sentiment, the theory of keeping the administration in check appears to have prevailed over the desire for government stability.

The People Power Party, on the other hand, was able to breathe a sigh of relief. There had been pessimistic predictions of a “15 to 1” outcome, but the party managed to defend its strongholds such as Daegu and Gyeongbuk and, most significantly, retained control over Seoul. One senior People Power Party lawmaker said, “Given the tough circumstances, managing to keep four seats in the National Assembly by-elections and Seoul is a decent result.”

Ruling Party Faces Real Estate and Youth Issues, Opposition Must Win Over Moderates

However, this election has left both parties with challenges. For the ruling party, real estate issues, which have been overshadowed by the “KOSPI 9000” rally, have emerged as the top priority. The alienation of the 2030 generation, who turned their backs on the Democratic Party, is also a concern. According to exit polls by the three major broadcasters (KBS, MBC, and SBS), 56.8% of Seoul voters in their 20s and 59.7% in their 30s supported People Power Party candidate Oh Sehoon. Notably, among men in their 20s, this percentage rose to 75.3%, the highest among all age groups.

Choi Byeongcheon, Director of the Institute for New Growth Economy, wrote on Facebook, “Traditionally, women in their 20s tend to be progressive, while men in their 20s are conservative independents, which usually offsets each other. The fact that the Democratic Party is losing among the combined total of people in their 20s means even women in that age group are turning critical of the progressive Democratic Party. This is a very important strategic and political insight.”

The opposition party also faces the challenge of winning over moderates. It was defeated in central regions such as Gyeonggi, Incheon, and Chungcheong, where there is a high proportion of moderate voters. Yoo Euidong, the People Power Party candidate for the National Assembly by-election in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, who won in a three-way race, said on SBS’s “Kim Taehyun’s Politics Show” that “We need to objectively and thoroughly reflect on why we lost the support of voters in the Seoul metropolitan area.”

The Next Leadership Landscape in Both Parties Shaken...Oh Sehoon and Han Donghoon in the Spotlight

This election is also expected to affect the leadership landscape in both parties. Within the ruling party, attention is focused on whether leader Jeong Cheongrae will secure another term. Some predict that the victory will give him momentum for reappointment, while others argue that defeats in key areas such as Seoul and Pyeongtaek in Gyeonggi Province could lead to calls for him to take responsibility.

The situation for the opposition is even more complex. Both Oh Sehoon, who ran independently, and Han Donghoon, the disqualified independent candidate for the National Assembly seat in Buk-gu, Busan, survived the election. A People Power Party lawmaker commented, “Oh Sehoon secured a favorable position by winning the election on his own.” An official close to Han stated, “This is a recognition of the conservative reconstruction path.”

However, it remains uncertain what stance leader Jang Donghyuk will take. There are predictions that he could maintain his leadership based on the results in Seoul and the by-elections. If this happens, internal party conflict is expected to intensify. A senior lawmaker from Busan remarked, “The Jang Donghyuk leadership is of no benefit whatsoever. The contrasting results in Seoul and Busan prove this.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.