Progressive Superintendents Expected to Win in Large Numbers... Exit Polls: Progressives Lead in 9 Regions, Conservatives in 3, 4 Too Close to Call

Exit Polls from the Three Major Broadcasters

A Major Shift Compared to 2022

It is expected that many progressive candidates will be elected in the nationwide superintendent of education elections, which were held alongside the June 3 local elections.

According to exit polls announced by the three major broadcasters—KBS, MBC, and SBS—immediately after voting ended at 6 p.m. on June 3, progressive candidates were leading in 9 out of 16 metropolitan and provincial areas. In addition, progressive candidates were ahead in 4 regions where the race was considered too close to call, either within or near the margin of error. Conservative candidates were only leading in 3 regions.

In the Seoul metropolitan area, progressive candidates were ahead in both Seoul and Gyeonggi Province. In Seoul, incumbent Jung Geunsik (progressive, 39.0%) was leading Jo Junhyeok (conservative, 21.2%) by 17.8 percentage points. In Gyeonggi Province, An Minseok (progressive, 58.2%), a five-term National Assembly member, was showing a significant lead over incumbent Lim Taehee (conservative, 41.8%).

On the 3rd, during the 9th nationwide simultaneous local elections, Jung Geunsik, a candidate for Seoul Superintendent of Education, was seen at his election office in Jongno-gu, Seoul, watching the exit poll broadcast and celebrating with his supporters. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Progressive candidates also performed well in the Yeongnam region. In Busan, incumbent Kim Seokjun (49.6%) was in the lead, and in Ulsan, Jo Yongsik (44.2%) was ranked first. In the Chungcheong region, Sung Kwangjin in Daejeon (33.2%) and Lee Byungdo in South Chungcheong (34.1%) were each leading. In Gangwon Province, Kang Samyeong (43.8%) was found to be ahead of incumbent Shin Gyeongho (35.2%).

In the first superintendent election for Jeonnam-Gwangju Integrated Special City, incumbent Jeonnam Superintendent Kim Daejung (40.4%) was leading, while in North Jeolla Province, Cheon Hoseong (56.2%) was also ahead.

Conservative candidates were only leading in three regions: Daegu, North Gyeongsang, and North Chungcheong. In Daegu, incumbent Kang Eunhee (51.5%), who is seeking a third term, was significantly ahead of Lim Seongmu (29.5%). In North Gyeongsang, incumbent Lim Jongsik (45.0%) was in the lead, as was incumbent Yoon Geonyeong (45.7%) in North Chungcheong.

The four closely contested regions were Jeju, South Gyeongsang, Sejong, and Incheon. In Jeju, Ko Uisuk (progressive, 45.1%) and incumbent Kim Gwangsu (conservative, 42.0%) were within the margin of error. In South Gyeongsang, Song Younggi (progressive, 42.2%) and Kwon Sunki (conservative, 38.7%) were also within the margin. In Sejong, Im Jeonsu (progressive, 35.1%) and Kang Mia (conservative, 32.5%) were neck and neck, while in Incheon, incumbent Do Seonghun (progressive, 37.1%) and Lee Daehyeong (conservative, 32.7%) were also predicted to be in a close race within the margin of error.

Depending on the results of this election, there could be a significant shift in the nationwide balance of power between progressive and conservative superintendents. In the previous election in 2022, progressives held nine regions (Seoul, Incheon, South Chungcheong, Sejong, North Jeolla, South Jeolla, Gwangju, Ulsan, South Gyeongsang), while conservatives held eight (Gyeonggi, North Chungcheong, Daejeon, Gangwon, North Gyeongsang, Daegu, Busan, Jeju), resulting in a close balance. However, if the exit polls prove accurate, progressives are expected to secure the majority of seats this time.

Meanwhile, the exit poll was conducted by the three broadcasters, who commissioned Korea Research, Ipsos, and Korea Research International. The poll was carried out from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. on June 3 at 615 polling stations nationwide, surveying 108,727 voters. The survey was conducted by selecting every fifth voter leaving the polling station and adjusting the intervals as necessary. The margin of error was between ±1.7 and 4.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.