Terrestrial Broadcasters’ Exit Polls and JTBC Projections Diverge...Busan, Gangwon, Chungcheong, and Gyeongnam Too Close to Call (Comprehensive)

Four Battleground Regions in Exit Polls, Five in JTBC Survey

Daegu and Jeonbuk: Ultra-Close Races in Both Surveys

JTBC Alone Predicts Democratic Party Lead in Busan and Gangwon

In the June 3 local elections, the exit polls conducted by the three terrestrial broadcasters (KBS, MBC, SBS) and the forecast survey by JTBC showed differing results. Depending on the survey methodology, the projected election outcomes vary, raising the possibility that there may be many regions with extremely close races.

According to the exit polls released at 6 p.m. on June 3 by KBS, MBC, and SBS, four regions—Busan, Daegu, Gangwon, and Jeonbuk—were classified as battlegrounds within the margin of error. In contrast, JTBC's forecast survey listed five regions—Daegu, Gyeongnam, Jeonbuk, Chungnam, and Chungbuk—as being in contention. The overlapping competitive districts in both surveys were Daegu and Jeonbuk.

Chung Cheong-rae, Chief Standing Election Countermeasures Committee Chair of the Democratic Party of Korea, Han Byung-do, Co-Chief Standing Election Countermeasures Committee Chair, and Lee Si-jong, Co-Chief Standing Election Countermeasures Committee Chair, are reviewing the exit poll results at the vote counting center set up at the National Assembly Members' Office Building for the 9th Nationwide Local Elections and National Assembly By-election held on June 3, 2026. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

In particular, the Daegu mayoral election is expected to be the most unpredictable and closely contested race. In the Daegu mayoral election, the exit polls by the three terrestrial broadcasters showed Choo Kyung-ho of the People Power Party with 49.9% and Kim Boo-kyum of the Democratic Party with 49.1%, a difference of just 0.8 percentage points. In JTBC's forecast survey, the situation was reversed, with Kim Boo-kyum at 49.7% and Choo Kyung-ho at 49.2%, a 0.5 percentage point lead for Kim Boo-kyum. The margin is so slim that the frontrunner changes depending on the survey, indicating a fiercely competitive race.

The Jeonbuk election, where independent candidate Kim Kwan-young, the incumbent governor, is running, is also expected to be closely contested. In the exit poll by the three terrestrial broadcasters, Lee Won-taek of the Democratic Party had 48.5% and independent Kim Kwan-young had 46.3%, a difference of 2.2 percentage points. JTBC's forecast survey showed Lee Won-taek at 50.9% and Kim Kwan-young at 44.6%.

There were also many regions where the two surveys had different perspectives on the state of the race. For Busan and Gangwon, JTBC considered the Democratic Party to be leading, while the three terrestrial broadcasters classified them as battlegrounds.

On June 3, 2026, Jang Donghyuk, the leader of the People Power Party, along with the party leadership, lawmakers, and officials, watched the exit poll broadcast for the local and parliamentary by-elections at the vote counting situation room set up at the central party office in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by Kim Hyunmin

In the Busan mayoral election, the exit polls by the three broadcasters showed Jeon Jae-soo of the Democratic Party with 50.2% and Park Hyung-joon of the People Power Party with 48.3%, a narrow margin of 1.9 percentage points, indicating an extremely close race. On the other hand, JTBC's forecast survey classified it as a Democratic Party lead, with Jeon Jae-soo at 53.9% and Park Hyung-joon at 44.4%, a 9.5 percentage point difference.

The Gangwon gubernatorial race also showed a close margin in the exit polls: Woo Sang-ho of the Democratic Party had 51.3% and Kim Jin-tae of the People Power Party had 48.7%, a difference of 2.6 percentage points. In JTBC's forecast survey, Woo Sang-ho led with 56.9% to Kim Jin-tae's 43.1%, a much wider margin of 13.8 percentage points, indicating a Democratic Party lead.

Conversely, in Gyeongnam, Chungnam, and Chungbuk, the three terrestrial broadcasters saw a Democratic Party lead, while JTBC's forecast survey classified these as battlegrounds. In JTBC's forecast, Kim Kyung-soo of the Democratic Party led Park Wan-soo of the People Power Party by 4.6 percentage points (52.3% to 47.7%), classifying it as a battleground. The exit polls by the three broadcasters showed Kim Kyung-soo at 54.3% and Park Wan-soo at 45.7%, an 8.6 percentage point difference favoring Kim Kyung-soo.

In the Chungnam gubernatorial race, JTBC's forecast classified it as close, with Park Soo-hyun of the Democratic Party at 52.8% and Kim Tae-heum of the People Power Party at 47.2%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. In contrast, the exit polls by the three broadcasters showed Park Soo-hyun at 52.1% and Kim Tae-heum at 47.9%, a 4.2 percentage point difference, which was considered a Democratic Party advantage.

In the Chungbuk gubernatorial race, JTBC's forecast survey showed Democratic Party candidate Shin Yong-han leading People Power Party candidate Kim Young-hwan by 4.4 percentage points (52.2% to 47.8%). In contrast, the exit poll by the three broadcasters showed Shin Yong-han at 56.2% and Kim Young-hwan at 43.8%, a much wider margin of 12.4 percentage points in favor of the Democratic Party.

Although Gyeongbuk was not considered a battleground, the difference in perspective was also evident in the gubernatorial race there. The exit polls by the three terrestrial broadcasters showed Oh Jung-ki of the Democratic Party with 30.3% and Lee Cheol-woo of the People Power Party with 69.7%. In contrast, JTBC's survey showed Oh Jung-ki with 36.4% and Lee Cheol-woo with 63.6%, narrowing the projected vote gap between the two candidates.

Meanwhile, the exit poll conducted by the three terrestrial broadcasters was commissioned to Korea Research, Ipsos, and Korea Research International, and was carried out from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. on June 3, 2026, at 615 polling stations nationwide with 108,728 voters. The survey was conducted by sampling every fifth voter exiting the polling stations, with the intervals adjusted as needed. The polls have a 95% confidence level and a margin of error ranging from ±1.7 percentage points to ±4.1 percentage points. The JTBC forecast survey was conducted by public opinion research firm MetaVoice, which conducted 100% wireless virtual number telephone interviews and ARS surveys with respondents from May 25 to June 2, 2026.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.