Goldman Sachs: "KOSPI Headed to 12,000"... Record Outlook on Semiconductor Supercycle

Target Raised from 9,000 in Just One Month
320% Earnings Growth Forecast for This Year

Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised its KOSPI target to 12,000. This is an upward revision from the previous target of 9,000 in less than a month, reflecting the view that there is room for an additional 30% increase from the current index level.

On the 2nd, the KOSPI is displayed on the current status board of the Hana Bank dealing room in Jung-gu, Seoul, as it attempts to rebound after falling more than 2% during the session. That day, the KOSPI opened at 8,883.19, up 94.81 points (1.08%) from the previous session, while the KOSDAQ index started at 1,044.89, down 5.14 points (0.49%). June 2, 2026 Photo by Jo Yongjun

According to Reuters and MarketWatch on June 3, Goldman Sachs presented a 12-month KOSPI target of 12,000 in a report released that day and maintained its "overweight" stance on Korean equities. MarketWatch reported that Goldman Sachs sees about 40% additional upside potential for the KOSPI.

The main reason behind Goldman Sachs raising its target is the improvement in corporate earnings. Goldman Sachs identified earnings as the key driver for Asian equities at present, highlighting that IT sector profits grew by 185% in the first quarter of this year, citing Korea as a prime example.

Profit forecasts for Korean companies have also risen sharply. Goldman Sachs projected that KOSPI-listed companies would see earnings growth of 320% this year. The forecast for next year is 35%. MarketWatch also reported that Goldman Sachs raised Korea’s 2026 earnings growth outlook to 320%.

Another factor behind the revised target is the positive outlook for the semiconductor industry. Goldman Sachs noted that the market expects high profitability for memory companies will not last long, but the current memory cycle could be more prolonged than in the past. The bank believes that growing investments in AI servers and data centers are driving sustained strong demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM.

Korean semiconductor exports are also supporting these expectations. According to Reuters, Korea’s exports in May reached a record high of $87.75 billion, up 53.2% from a year earlier. Semiconductor exports surged 169.4% to $37.16 billion.

SK hynix is considered a leading beneficiary of the expanding AI memory demand. Euisun Chung, Executive Chair of SK Group, recently announced at Computex in Taiwan that SK hynix plans to double its wafer production capacity over the next five years. Reuters reported that SK hynix held a 58% share of the HBM market in the first quarter of this year, while Samsung Electronics and Micron each accounted for 21%.

Goldman Sachs also noted that earnings prospects for the Korean stock market are improving even without considering Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. It gave positive assessments of stocks in the defense, shipbuilding, and power supply sectors. Currently, the KOSPI’s forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) stands at 8.2 times, which is 20% below its previous peak.

However, the possibility of a short-term correction was also mentioned. Goldman Sachs cited the heavy concentration in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, as well as the increase in leveraged ETF trading by individual investors, as potential adjustment factors. The bank warned that if the market declines, the unwinding of leveraged positions could increase volatility.

Reuters also reported that while Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about Korean and Taiwanese equities, it warned that the risk of a correction has increased following the recent rapid rally.

Goldman Sachs believes that even if a correction occurs, the investment appeal of Korean equities will remain intact. According to MarketWatch, Timothy Moe, Goldman Sachs’ Chief Asia Portfolio Strategist, predicted that even if the KOSPI undergoes a correction, downside would likely be limited around the 7,800 level.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.