"With Samsung and Hynix Rising Too Much, Feeling Uneasy... Who Will Be the Biggest Beneficiary of Capital Flows in the Second Half?"

Yuanta Securities has forecast that if the concentration on semiconductors eases in the second half of the year, securities stocks will emerge as the biggest beneficiaries. This is due to the anticipated increase in profits driven by a strong stock market.

The KOSPI is shown on the status board in the dealing room of Hana Bank in Jung-gu, Seoul, as it attempts a rebound after falling more than 2% during the session on the 2nd. That day, the KOSPI opened at 8,883.19, up 94.81 points (1.08%) from the previous session, while the KOSDAQ index started at 1,044.89, down 5.14 points (0.49%). June 2, 2026 Photo by Jo Yongjun

Recently, the KRX Securities Index has underperformed compared to the KOSPI, with the gap between the two indices widening. This is primarily because market funds have been concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. Of the daily average trading value, which exceeds 100 trillion won, more than 40% is accounted for by trades in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.

Woo Dohyeong, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, explained, "Given the current favorable conditions in the semiconductor industry, this concentration on semiconductors is likely to persist, and the gap between securities stocks and the KOSPI may widen further." He added, "However, as the growth rate of semiconductor profits is expected to slow in the second half, the concentration phenomenon should ease. As funds move to other sectors, securities stocks, which will clearly benefit from increased profits stemming from elevated index levels, are expected to begin their rebound."

Yuanta Securities projects that the combined net profit attributable to controlling shareholders of five securities firms—Samsung Securities, Mirae Asset Securities, NH Investment & Securities, Korea Financial Group, and Kiwoom Securities—will reach 3.2 trillion won in the second quarter of this year, exceeding the consensus (the average of securities firms’ forecasts) by 13.2%. Woo cited two main factors for this outperformance: increased trading value resulting from the rise in the stock market, which is expected to produce robust brokerage profits, and the expectation that valuation gains from the global space company IPO related to Mirae Asset Securities will exceed 1 trillion won again in the second quarter.

Yuanta Securities has revised its forecasts for the combined daily average trading value of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets for 2026 and 2027 to 73.2 trillion won and 64.4 trillion won, respectively, raising its previous estimates by 37.1% and 41.2%. Among securities stocks, the firm named Samsung Securities as its top pick. Woo explained, "As the market is expected to continue being led by the KOSPI, Samsung Securities, which generates a relatively high proportion of its fees from the KOSPI, will benefit." He added, "With a dividend payout ratio of 35% and a dividend yield of around 6%, there is limited downside risk for the stock price."

Mirae Asset Securities was highlighted as a stock of interest. Woo noted, "Securities firms are actively forming strategic partnerships and equity investments with virtual asset exchanges, and Mirae Asset Group has acquired a 92% stake in Korbit." He continued, "As discussions on the Digital Asset Basic Act are expected to resume in the second half, momentum for digital asset-related stocks should be highlighted again, and the company is also expected to benefit from the global space company IPO."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.